ScoreProb
Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 14 2026

Levski Karlovo vs Neftochimic Burgas

Levski Karlovo Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Neftochimic Burgas Away · Elo 1,550
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Neftochimic Burgas win
Levski Karlovo win
36.9%
Draw
20.6%
Neftochimic Burgas winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.1%
Under 2.540.9%

How much we know

Levski Karlovo history55 matches
Neftochimic Burgas history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Neftochimic Burgas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Neftochimic Burgas are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,550 against 1,499. On rating alone Neftochimic Burgas would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.47 goals a game over 55 matches for Levski Karlovo, against 1.37 over 38 for Neftochimic Burgas.

  • Neftochimic Burgas concede fewer

    Levski Karlovo concede 1.84 a game, Neftochimic Burgas 1.08.

  • Levski Karlovo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Levski Karlovo matches, against 47% for Neftochimic Burgas. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Levski Karlovo
Neftochimic Burgas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.6
ELO
1549.7
55
ELO · Matches
38
1498.6
Current Team ELO
1549.7
1549.7
Current Opponent ELO
1498.6
-51.09
Current ELO Difference
51.09
0.43
Expected score
0.57
55
History Matches
38
0.00
Residual Mean
0.07
50.27
Overperformance
54.50
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
2.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.70
1.90
Goals for per game
1.70
2.30
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
38
1.47
PPG
1.68
43.6%
Win rate
47.4%
16.4%
Draw rate
26.3%
40.0%
Loss rate
26.3%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
43.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
2.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
18
1.79
PPG
1.67
55.2%
Win rate
50.0%
13.8%
Draw rate
16.7%
31.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
75.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
2.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
29
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.37
65.5%
Scoring rate
71.1%
47.3%
BTTS rate
44.7%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.33
79.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
58.6%
BTTS rate
44.4%
0.33
Goals for per game
1.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
55
History Matches
38
1.47
Goals Mean
1.37
1.44
Goals Std
1.11
65.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
45.5%
Scored 2+ rate
44.7%
21.8%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.84
Goals against per game
1.08
74.5%
Conceding rate
65.8%
1.66
Goals against per game
1.39
72.4%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
38
1.84
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.71
Conceded Std
1.06
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.3%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
1.66
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
38
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
2.58
Goal Difference Std
1.79
6.74
Stability score
3.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
21
5
Lead Matches
0
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.87
Lead Points Retention
—
6
Trailing Matches
6
16.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.10
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
1.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.34
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
17
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.82
Portability PPG Range
0.43
39.82
Portability Score
69.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points Retention
ELO-51.09
PPG-0.21
GF0.10
GA0.76
PPG-1.33
PPG0.13
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches17
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate0.7%
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.76
Conceded Std0.65
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate22.8%
Conceded 3+ rate14.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.69
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.79
Stability score2.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.03
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches5
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.54
Portability PPG Range1.39
Portability Score-30.05
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO-51.09
Current Opponent ELO51.09
Current ELO Difference-102.2
Expected score-0.15
History Matches17
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Levski Karlovo

L
Atletik Kuklen2–0Levski Karlovo31 Oct · away
Pick: Atletik Kuklen 51% · hit
L
Levski Karlovo0–3Dimitrovgrad24 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Karlovo 44% · missed
L
Levski Karlovo1–3Spartak Plovdiv21 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Plovdiv 48% · hit
W
Levski Karlovo3–0Gigant Saedinenie17 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Karlovo 39% · hit
L
Zagorets2–0Levski Karlovo29 Aug · away
Pick: Zagorets 56% · hit

Neftochimic Burgas

D
Neftochimic Burgas0–0Rodopa Smolyan31 Oct · home
Pick: Neftochimic Burgas 38% · missed
W
Spartak Plovdiv0–1Neftochimic Burgas24 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Plovdiv 62% · missed
W
Neftochimic Burgas2–0Sayana Haskovo21 Oct · home
Pick: Sayana Haskovo 38% · missed
L
Neftochimic Burgas0–4CSKA 194816 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA 1948 41% · hit
D
Neftochimic Burgas1–1Sportist Svoge4 Oct · home
Pick: Neftochimic Burgas 37% · missed

About this match

Levski Karlovo and Neftochimic Burgas meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Levski Karlovo win 36.9%, draw 20.6%, Neftochimic Burgas win 42.5%. The pick is Neftochimic Burgas win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.1%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.