ScoreProb
Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 14 2026

Sayana Haskovo vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Sayana Haskovo Home · Elo 1,469
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II Away · Elo 1,386
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sayana Haskovo win
Sayana Haskovo winPick
61.4%
Draw
18.2%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II win
20.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.0%
Under 2.539.0%

How much we know

Sayana Haskovo history38 matches
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Sayana Haskovo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sayana Haskovo are rated 83 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,469 against 1,386. On rating alone Sayana Haskovo would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 38 matches for Sayana Haskovo, against 1.10 over 49 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv II.

  • Defences are close

    Sayana Haskovo concede 1.79 a game, Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1.71.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Sayana Haskovo matches, against 59% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv II. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sayana Haskovo
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.2
ELO
1385.7
38
ELO · Matches
49
1469.2
Current Team ELO
1385.7
1385.7
Current Opponent ELO
1469.2
83.43
Current ELO Difference
-83.43
0.62
Expected score
0.38
38
History Matches
49
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.11
47.41
Overperformance
42.02
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
49
1.18
PPG
0.80
34.2%
Win rate
22.4%
15.8%
Draw rate
12.2%
50.0%
Loss rate
65.3%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
60.5%
Over 2.5 rate
59.2%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
24
1.47
PPG
0.54
42.1%
Win rate
16.7%
21.1%
Draw rate
4.2%
36.8%
Loss rate
79.2%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
70.8%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
19
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.10
71.1%
Scoring rate
61.2%
47.4%
BTTS rate
49.0%
1.26
Goals for per game
0.88
68.4%
Scoring rate
58.3%
42.1%
BTTS rate
54.2%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
38
History Matches
49
1.18
Goals Mean
1.10
1.07
Goals Std
1.27
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
61.2%
28.9%
Scored 2+ rate
26.5%
15.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.79
Goals against per game
1.71
73.7%
Conceding rate
83.7%
1.26
Goals against per game
2.04
68.4%
Conceding rate
91.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
38
History Matches
49
1.79
Conceded Mean
1.71
1.56
Conceded Std
1.20
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.1%
31.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.5%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
2.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
38.8%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
38.8%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
49
0.91
Result entropy
0.79
2.23
Goal Difference Std
1.97
8.52
Stability score
20.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
18
Eligible Matches
20
5
Lead Matches
1
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
8
0.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
20
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.57
14
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.17
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.40
45.47
Portability Score
75.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO83.43
PPG0.39
GF0.08
GA0.08
PPG1.33
PPG0.93
PPG1.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate23.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate9.8%
Scored 2+ rate2.4%
Scored 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.36
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score-12.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.43
Portability PPG Range0.93
Portability Score-29.53
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.58
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.73
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO83.43
Current Opponent ELO-83.43
Current ELO Difference166.9
Expected score0.24
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sayana Haskovo

L
Levski Krumovgrad4–0Sayana Haskovo31 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 41% · hit
D
Sayana Haskovo2–2Maritsa Milevo24 Oct · home
Pick: Sayana Haskovo 51% · missed
L
Neftochimic Burgas2–0Sayana Haskovo21 Oct · away
Pick: Sayana Haskovo 38% · missed
W
Sekirovo Rakovski2–3Sayana Haskovo17 Oct · away
Pick: Sayana Haskovo 44% · hit
L
Sayana Haskovo1–2Spartak Plovdiv29 Aug · home
Pick: Spartak Plovdiv 44% · hit

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

D
Zagorets1–1Lokomotiv Plovdiv II24 Oct · away
Pick: Zagorets 55% · missed
L
Levski Krumovgrad6–0Lokomotiv Plovdiv II21 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sayana Haskovo and Lokomotiv Plovdiv II meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sayana Haskovo win 61.4%, draw 18.2%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv II win 20.4%. The pick is Sayana Haskovo win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.0%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.