ScoreProb
Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 14 2026

Gigant Saedinenie vs Zagorets

Gigant Saedinenie Home · Elo 1,511
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zagorets Away · Elo 1,489
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gigant Saedinenie win
Gigant Saedinenie winPick
47.7%
Draw
24.3%
Zagorets win
28.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.4%
Under 2.547.6%

How much we know

Gigant Saedinenie history55 matches
Zagorets history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gigant Saedinenie are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,511 against 1,489. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Gigant Saedinenie score more

    1.60 goals a game over 55 matches for Gigant Saedinenie, against 1.36 over 55 for Zagorets.

  • Defences are close

    Gigant Saedinenie concede 1.38 a game, Zagorets 1.45.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Gigant Saedinenie matches, against 49% for Zagorets. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gigant Saedinenie
Zagorets
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.0
ELO
1489.1
55
ELO · Matches
55
1511.0
Current Team ELO
1489.1
1489.1
Current Opponent ELO
1511.0
21.85
Current ELO Difference
-21.85
0.53
Expected score
0.47
55
History Matches
55
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.30
Overperformance
48.58
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
3.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.10
2.70
Goals for per game
1.70
2.10
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
2.07
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.69
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
55
1.51
PPG
1.38
45.5%
Win rate
36.4%
14.5%
Draw rate
29.1%
40.0%
Loss rate
34.5%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.4%
52.7%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
29.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
30
1.96
PPG
1.10
61.5%
Win rate
26.7%
11.5%
Draw rate
30.0%
26.9%
Loss rate
43.3%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
26
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.36
76.4%
Scoring rate
76.4%
41.8%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.85
Goals for per game
1.03
80.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
38.5%
BTTS rate
46.7%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
55
1.60
Goals Mean
1.36
1.38
Goals Std
1.07
76.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
45.5%
Scored 2+ rate
43.6%
21.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.7%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.45
61.8%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.73
53.8%
Conceding rate
63.3%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
55
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.45
Conceded Std
1.83
43.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.5%
21.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.8%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
55
0.92
Result entropy
1.00
1.97
Goal Difference Std
2.21
8.49
Stability score
0.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
20
6
Lead Matches
4
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.83
2
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
16
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.40
Portability PPG Range
0.61
73.78
Portability Score
65.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO21.85
PPG0.13
GF0.24
GA-0.07
PPG0.00
PPG0.86
PPG1.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.32
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate1.8%
Scored 3+ rate9.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.62
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score8.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.21
Portability Score8.37
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.75
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO21.85
Current Opponent ELO-21.85
Current ELO Difference43.70
Expected score0.06
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gigant Saedinenie

L
Dimitrovgrad4–1Gigant Saedinenie31 Oct · away
Pick: Gigant Saedinenie 40% · missed
W
Gigant Saedinenie2–1Sozopol24 Oct · home
Pick: Gigant Saedinenie 42% · hit
L
Rodopa Smolyan1–0Gigant Saedinenie21 Oct · away
Pick: Rodopa Smolyan 48% · hit
L
Levski Karlovo3–0Gigant Saedinenie17 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Karlovo 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Zagorets

L
Sozopol2–1Zagorets31 Oct · away
Pick: Sozopol 48% · hit
D
Zagorets1–1Lokomotiv Plovdiv II24 Oct · home
Pick: Zagorets 55% · missed
W
Sekirovo Rakovski1–2Zagorets21 Oct · away
Pick: Sekirovo Rakovski 39% · missed
L
Levski Krumovgrad2–1Zagorets17 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 50% · hit
L
Zagorets0–4Rilski Sportist4 Oct · home
Pick: Rilski Sportist 41% · hit

About this match

Gigant Saedinenie and Zagorets meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gigant Saedinenie win 47.7%, draw 24.3%, Zagorets win 28.0%. The pick is Gigant Saedinenie win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.4%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.