ScoreProb
Damallsvenskan Sweden Round 25 2026

Djurgården W vs Häcken W

Djurgården W Home · Elo 1,547
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Häcken W Away · Elo 1,768
Stockholms Stadion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Häcken W win
Djurgården W win
12.2%
Draw
11.3%
Häcken W winPick
76.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.0%
Under 2.531.0%

How much we know

Djurgården W history48 matches
Häcken W history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (76.6%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Häcken W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Häcken W are rated 221 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,768 against 1,547. On rating alone Häcken W would be expected to take 78% of the points on offer.

  • Häcken W score far more

    1.71 goals a game over 48 matches for Djurgården W, against 3.30 over 61 for Häcken W.

  • Häcken W concede fewer

    Djurgården W concede 1.48 a game, Häcken W 0.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Djurgården W matches, against 70% for Häcken W. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Djurgården W
Häcken W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.9
ELO
1767.9
48
ELO · Matches
61
1546.9
Current Team ELO
1767.9
1767.9
Current Opponent ELO
1546.9
-221.0
Current ELO Difference
221.0
0.22
Expected score
0.78
48
History Matches
61
0.04
Residual Mean
0.21
53.11
Overperformance
65.93
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
3.00
3.00
Goals for per game
4.60
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.70
1.60
Goals for per game
3.20
1.50
Goals against per game
0.60
30.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
2.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.72
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
2.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
61
1.69
PPG
2.49
50.0%
Win rate
80.3%
18.8%
Draw rate
8.2%
31.3%
Loss rate
11.5%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
70.5%
35.4%
Over 3.5 rate
54.1%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
32
1.87
PPG
2.44
52.2%
Win rate
78.1%
30.4%
Draw rate
9.4%
17.4%
Loss rate
12.5%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
46.9%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.92
23
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
3.30
79.2%
Scoring rate
91.8%
58.3%
BTTS rate
41.0%
2.04
Goals for per game
3.22
82.6%
Scoring rate
87.5%
60.9%
BTTS rate
31.3%
1.33
Goals for per game
3.07
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
46.7%
BTTS rate
53.3%
48
History Matches
61
1.71
Goals Mean
3.30
1.55
Goals Std
2.31
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
91.8%
47.9%
Scored 2+ rate
73.8%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
60.7%
2.04
Venue Goals Mean
3.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.48
Goals against per game
0.67
75.0%
Conceding rate
45.9%
1.22
Goals against per game
0.53
73.9%
Conceding rate
37.5%
1.73
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
53.3%
48
History Matches
61
1.48
Conceded Mean
0.67
1.27
Conceded Std
0.84
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.0%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.3%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
0.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
54.1%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
8.2%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
62.5%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
54.1%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
8.2%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
62.5%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
54.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
61
0.93
Result entropy
0.57
2.20
Goal Difference Std
2.62
6.80
Stability score
42.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
61
12
Lead Matches
40
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
95.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.96
16
Trailing Matches
5
25.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
1.48
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.82
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.17
Rest days
75.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.30
24
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
1.00
PPG
2.80
26.7%
Win rate
93.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
53.3%
Loss rate
6.7%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
2.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
15
Current Competition Matches
15
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.80
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.27
4
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.18
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.55
39.67
Portability Score
74.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-221.0
PPG-0.80
GF-1.59
GA0.81
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.57
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate12.6%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.36
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-1.59
Goals Std-0.75
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.26
Scored 3+ rate-0.40
Venue Goals Mean-1.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean0.81
Conceded Std0.43
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Conceded 2+ rate23.6%
Conceded 3+ rate15.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.48
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.36
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score-35.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.89
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-28
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate5.0%
Trailing Win Rate18.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.58
Portability PPG Range1.45
Portability Score-34.35
Rest days0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.27
Current Team ELO-221.0
Current Opponent ELO221.0
Current ELO Difference-442.0
Expected score-0.56
History Matches-13
Residual Mean-0.17
Overperformance-12.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Djurgården W

W
Djurgården W2–0Vittsjö W31 Oct · home
Pick: Djurgården W 44% · hit
L
Hammarby W3–0Djurgården W24 Oct · away
Pick: Hammarby W 70% · hit
W
Djurgården W3–2Piteå W18 Oct · home
Pick: Djurgården W 46% · hit
W
Djurgården W2–1AIK W4 Oct · home
Pick: Djurgården W 43% · hit
W
Norrköping W0–1Djurgården W30 Aug · away
Pick: Norrköping W 42% · missed

Häcken W

W
Häcken W4–1Kristianstad W2 Nov · home
Pick: Häcken W 76% · hit
D
Paris FC W1–1Häcken W29 Oct · away
Pick: Häcken W 53% · missed
W
Växjö W1–2Häcken W23 Oct · away
Pick: Häcken W 82% · hit
W
Häcken W3–0Hammarby W18 Oct · home
Pick: Häcken W 43% · hit
W
Häcken W9–0Uppsala W4 Oct · home
Pick: Häcken W 91% · hit

About this match

Djurgården W and Häcken W meet in Damallsvenskan on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Stockholms Stadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Djurgården W win 12.2%, draw 11.3%, Häcken W win 76.6%. The pick is Häcken W win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.0%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.