ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain Group 4 - 10 2026

Don Benito vs Puente Genil

Don Benito Home · Elo 1,588
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Puente Genil Away · Elo 1,493
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Don Benito win
Don Benito winPick
38.2%
Draw
31.0%
Puente Genil win
30.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.6%
No53.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.7%
Under 2.553.3%

How much we know

Don Benito history48 matches
Puente Genil history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Don Benito are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Don Benito are rated 96 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,493. On rating alone Don Benito would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Don Benito score far more

    1.71 goals a game over 48 matches for Don Benito, against 1.04 over 52 for Puente Genil.

  • Defences are close

    Don Benito concede 0.92 a game, Puente Genil 0.88.

  • Don Benito games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Don Benito matches, against 31% for Puente Genil. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Don Benito
Puente Genil
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.3
ELO
1492.5
48
ELO · Matches
52
1588.3
Current Team ELO
1492.5
1492.5
Current Opponent ELO
1588.3
95.79
Current ELO Difference
-95.79
0.63
Expected score
0.37
48
History Matches
52
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.01
56.74
Overperformance
49.17
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.10
2.00
Goals for per game
0.70
0.70
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
2.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
52
1.65
PPG
1.40
45.8%
Win rate
36.5%
27.1%
Draw rate
30.8%
27.1%
Loss rate
32.7%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
55.8%
39.6%
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
13.5%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
1.80
PPG
1.07
52.0%
Win rate
29.6%
24.0%
Draw rate
18.5%
24.0%
Loss rate
51.9%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.71
Goals for per game
1.04
79.2%
Scoring rate
69.2%
43.8%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.88
Goals for per game
0.96
80.0%
Scoring rate
63.0%
44.0%
BTTS rate
40.7%
48
History Matches
52
1.71
Goals Mean
1.04
1.76
Goals Std
0.96
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
41.7%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
5.8%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.92
Goals against per game
0.88
60.4%
Conceding rate
63.5%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.19
56.0%
Conceding rate
70.4%
48
History Matches
52
0.92
Conceded Mean
0.88
0.93
Conceded Std
0.91
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.4%
4.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
52
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
2.16
Goal Difference Std
1.41
3.05
Stability score
0.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
52
19
Lead Matches
9
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.70
10
Trailing Matches
17
30.0%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.8
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
24
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.79
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.58
Portability PPG Range
0.89
38.76
Portability Score
53.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO95.79
PPG0.24
GF0.67
GA0.03
PPG0.73
PPG0.60
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate14.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.67
Goals Std0.80
Scored 1+ rate9.9%
Scored 2+ rate16.7%
Scored 3+ rate13.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.64
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Conceded 2+ rate9.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.75
Stability score2.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.60
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate28.7%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate0.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range0.69
Portability Score-14.26
Rest days-7.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.61
Current Team ELO95.79
Current Opponent ELO-95.79
Current ELO Difference191.6
Expected score0.27
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Don Benito

D
Don Benito1–1Linares Deportivo24 Oct · home
Pick: Don Benito 39% · missed
W
Don Benito4–2Atlético Central18 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Central 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Puente Genil

D
Sevilla Atletico1–1Puente Genil1 Nov · away
Pick: Sevilla Atletico 41% · missed
D
Puente Genil0–0Badajoz25 Oct · home
Pick: Badajoz 46% · missed
W
Las Palmas II1–2Puente Genil18 Oct · away
Pick: Puente Genil 34% · hit
L
Ciudad de Lucena1–0Puente Genil4 Oct · away
Pick: Ciudad de Lucena 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Don Benito and Puente Genil meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Don Benito win 38.2%, draw 31.0%, Puente Genil win 30.8%. The pick is Don Benito win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.7%. Both teams to score: 46.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.