ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain Group 4 - 10 2026

Marbella vs Las Palmas II

Marbella Home · Elo 1,418
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Las Palmas II Away · Elo 1,511
Banus Football Center, Marbella Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Marbella win
Marbella winPick
41.3%
Draw
30.5%
Las Palmas II win
28.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.1%
No49.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Marbella history57 matches
Las Palmas II history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Marbella are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Las Palmas II are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,511 against 1,418. On rating alone Las Palmas II would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Las Palmas II score more

    1.05 goals a game over 57 matches for Marbella, against 1.44 over 48 for Las Palmas II.

  • Las Palmas II concede fewer

    Marbella concede 1.46 a game, Las Palmas II 1.08.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Marbella matches, against 48% for Las Palmas II. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Marbella
Las Palmas II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1418.1
ELO
1511.1
57
ELO · Matches
48
1418.1
Current Team ELO
1511.1
1511.1
Current Opponent ELO
1418.1
-93.00
Current ELO Difference
93.00
0.37
Expected score
0.63
57
History Matches
48
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.01
44.93
Overperformance
50.70
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
2.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.90
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.95
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
48
1.04
PPG
1.54
28.1%
Win rate
43.8%
19.3%
Draw rate
22.9%
52.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
64.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
40.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
24
1.45
PPG
1.25
44.8%
Win rate
33.3%
10.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
44.8%
Loss rate
41.7%
62.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
34.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
29
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.05
Goals for per game
1.44
66.7%
Scoring rate
77.1%
49.1%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.25
62.1%
Scoring rate
70.8%
37.9%
BTTS rate
45.8%
57
History Matches
48
1.05
Goals Mean
1.44
1.03
Goals Std
1.21
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
77.1%
24.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.8%
10.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.6%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.46
Goals against per game
1.08
75.4%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.38
72.4%
Conceding rate
70.8%
57
History Matches
48
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.38
Conceded Std
1.04
35.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
21.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
48
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.73
7.89
Stability score
3.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
48
14
Lead Matches
13
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.82
20
Trailing Matches
10
15.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
169.8
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
33
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.40
Portability PPG Range
1.05
71.46
Portability Score
48.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-93.00
PPG-0.51
GF-0.38
GA0.37
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate10.4%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate8.8%
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate8.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.14
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score4.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.94
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate15.0%
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.65
Portability Score22.69
Rest days-19.27
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.13
Current Team ELO-93.00
Current Opponent ELO93.00
Current ELO Difference-186.0
Expected score-0.26
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Marbella

D
Marbella0–0Mijas Las Lagunas1 Nov · home
Pick: Mijas Las Lagunas 41% · missed
L
Xerez1–0Marbella25 Oct · away
Pick: Xerez 51% · hit
D
Marbella0–0Estepona18 Oct · home
Pick: Estepona 41% · missed
L
Marbella0–2Real Betis II4 Oct · home
Pick: Real Betis II 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Las Palmas II

L
Las Palmas II0–1Atlético Central1 Nov · home
Pick: Atlético Central 39% · hit
L
Sanluqueño4–1Las Palmas II25 Oct · away
Pick: Sanluqueño 42% · hit
L
Las Palmas II1–2Puente Genil18 Oct · home
Pick: Puente Genil 34% · hit
L
Recreativo Huelva4–0Las Palmas II4 Oct · away
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Marbella and Las Palmas II meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Banus Football Center, Marbella. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Marbella win 41.3%, draw 30.5%, Las Palmas II win 28.1%. The pick is Marbella win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.