ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain Group 4 - 10 2026

Estepona vs Tamaraceite

Estepona Home · Elo 1,551
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tamaraceite Away · Elo 1,581
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Estepona win
32.2%
DrawPick
34.2%
Tamaraceite win
33.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%

How much we know

Estepona history55 matches
Tamaraceite history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tamaraceite are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,581 against 1,551. On rating alone Tamaraceite would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Tamaraceite score more

    1.33 goals a game over 55 matches for Estepona, against 1.56 over 55 for Tamaraceite.

  • Tamaraceite concede fewer

    Estepona concede 1.25 a game, Tamaraceite 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Estepona matches, against 45% for Tamaraceite. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 5 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Estepona
Tamaraceite
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1550.9
ELO
1581.0
55
ELO · Matches
55
1550.9
Current Team ELO
1581.0
1581.0
Current Opponent ELO
1550.9
-30.12
Current ELO Difference
30.12
0.46
Expected score
0.54
55
History Matches
55
0.05
Residual Mean
0.07
53.56
Overperformance
55.17
0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.80
1.90
Goals for per game
2.10
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
55
1.47
PPG
1.78
40.0%
Win rate
52.7%
27.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
32.7%
Loss rate
27.3%
78.2%
Over 1.5 rate
67.3%
47.3%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
23.6%
Over 3.5 rate
29.1%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
28
1.39
PPG
1.25
35.7%
Win rate
35.7%
32.1%
Draw rate
17.9%
32.1%
Loss rate
46.4%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
60.7%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
28
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
1.56
76.4%
Scoring rate
80.0%
58.2%
BTTS rate
41.8%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.07
82.1%
Scoring rate
71.4%
67.9%
BTTS rate
42.9%
55
History Matches
55
1.33
Goals Mean
1.56
1.08
Goals Std
1.19
76.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
38.2%
Scored 2+ rate
47.3%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
21.8%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.25
Goals against per game
1.02
74.5%
Conceding rate
58.2%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.32
78.6%
Conceding rate
67.9%
55
History Matches
55
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.15
Conceded Std
1.17
30.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
41.8%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
41.8%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
41.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.92
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.74
1.11
Stability score
7.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
54
11
Lead Matches
19
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.89
16
Trailing Matches
11
37.5%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
175.7
Rest days
95.73
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.64
Portability PPG Range
0.66
63.09
Portability Score
63.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-30.12
PPG-0.31
GF-0.24
GA0.24
PPG0.14
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate3.6%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate5.5%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.31
History Matches0
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-6.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.78
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate19.3%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score-0.45
Rest days79.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Current Team ELO-30.12
Current Opponent ELO30.12
Current ELO Difference-60.24
Expected score-0.09
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Estepona

L
Antoniano4–1Estepona1 Nov · away
Pick: Antoniano 37% · hit
D
Estepona2–2Ciudad de Lucena24 Oct · home
Pick: Estepona 38% · missed
D
Marbella0–0Estepona18 Oct · away
Pick: Estepona 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tamaraceite

L
Tamaraceite1–3Xerez1 Nov · home
Pick: Tamaraceite 39% · missed
L
Atlético Central1–0Tamaraceite25 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Central 46% · hit
W
Tamaraceite3–2Real Betis II18 Oct · home
Pick: Tamaraceite 45% · hit
W
Tamaraceite1–0Antoniano4 Oct · home
Pick: Tamaraceite 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Estepona and Tamaraceite meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Estepona win 32.2%, draw 34.2%, Tamaraceite win 33.6%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.