ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain Group 4 - 10 2026

Linares Deportivo vs Sevilla Atletico

Linares Deportivo Home · Elo 1,540
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sevilla Atletico Away · Elo 1,406
Estadio Municipal de Linarejos, Linares Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Linares Deportivo win
Linares Deportivo winPick
42.4%
Draw
34.7%
Sevilla Atletico win
22.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.9%
No55.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.8%
Under 2.552.2%

How much we know

Linares Deportivo history52 matches
Sevilla Atletico history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Linares Deportivo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Linares Deportivo are rated 134 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,540 against 1,406. On rating alone Linares Deportivo would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Linares Deportivo score far more

    1.21 goals a game over 52 matches for Linares Deportivo, against 0.66 over 58 for Sevilla Atletico.

  • Defences are close

    Linares Deportivo concede 1.19 a game, Sevilla Atletico 1.09.

  • Linares Deportivo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Linares Deportivo matches, against 26% for Sevilla Atletico. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Linares Deportivo
Sevilla Atletico
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1539.8
ELO
1405.9
52
ELO · Matches
58
1539.8
Current Team ELO
1405.9
1405.9
Current Opponent ELO
1539.8
133.9
Current ELO Difference
-133.9
0.68
Expected score
0.32
52
History Matches
58
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.08
52.52
Overperformance
43.75
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.60
1.30
Goals for per game
0.60
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
58
1.42
PPG
1.02
34.6%
Win rate
24.1%
38.5%
Draw rate
29.3%
26.9%
Loss rate
46.6%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
55.2%
36.5%
Over 2.5 rate
25.9%
21.2%
Over 3.5 rate
5.2%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
30
1.64
PPG
0.67
44.0%
Win rate
13.3%
32.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
24.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
6.7%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
25
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.21
Goals for per game
0.66
78.8%
Scoring rate
51.7%
57.7%
BTTS rate
29.3%
1.52
Goals for per game
0.43
92.0%
Scoring rate
36.7%
64.0%
BTTS rate
23.3%
52
History Matches
58
1.21
Goals Mean
0.66
0.97
Goals Std
0.73
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
51.7%
28.8%
Scored 2+ rate
12.1%
9.6%
Scored 3+ rate
1.7%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
0.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.19
Goals against per game
1.09
71.2%
Conceding rate
65.5%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.40
68.0%
Conceding rate
73.3%
52
History Matches
58
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.06
Conceded Std
0.99
34.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
9.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
48.3%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
63.3%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
48.3%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
63.3%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
58
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.43
Goal Difference Std
1.37
0.97
Stability score
3.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
58
15
Lead Matches
8
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.75
15
Trailing Matches
24
40.0%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.17
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.69
Rest days
168.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
22
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.02
Portability PPG Range
0.99
98.27
Portability Score
50.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO133.9
PPG0.41
GF0.56
GA0.11
PPG0.97
PPG1.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.55
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.56
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate27.1%
Scored 2+ rate16.8%
Scored 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate1.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-2.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate10.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate27.5%
Trailing Win Rate2.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.48
Portability PPG Range-0.97
Portability Score47.90
Rest days-77.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO133.9
Current Opponent ELO-133.9
Current ELO Difference267.8
Expected score0.37
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance8.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Linares Deportivo

D
Badajoz1–1Linares Deportivo1 Nov · away
Pick: Badajoz 55% · missed
D
Don Benito1–1Linares Deportivo24 Oct · away
Pick: Don Benito 39% · missed
D
Linares Deportivo0–0Recreativo Huelva18 Oct · home
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 40% · missed
W
Atlético Central0–1Linares Deportivo4 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Central 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sevilla Atletico

D
Sevilla Atletico1–1Puente Genil1 Nov · home
Pick: Sevilla Atletico 41% · missed
W
Sevilla Atletico2–0Tenerife II25 Oct · home
Pick: Sevilla Atletico 45% · hit
D
Antoniano3–3Sevilla Atletico18 Oct · away
Pick: Antoniano 42% · missed
D
Sevilla Atletico2–2Badajoz4 Oct · home
Pick: Badajoz 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Linares Deportivo and Sevilla Atletico meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos, Linares. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Linares Deportivo win 42.4%, draw 34.7%, Sevilla Atletico win 22.8%. The pick is Linares Deportivo win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.8%. Both teams to score: 44.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.