ScoreProb
Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 14 2026

Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam

Helmond Sport Home · Elo 1,400
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Volendam Away · Elo 1,474
Lavans Stadion, Helmond Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Helmond Sport win
Helmond Sport winPick
37.3%
Draw
25.8%
FC Volendam win
36.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.8%
No42.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%

How much we know

Helmond Sport history66 matches
FC Volendam history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Helmond Sport are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Volendam are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,474 against 1,400. On rating alone FC Volendam would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • FC Volendam score more

    1.12 goals a game over 66 matches for Helmond Sport, against 1.46 over 69 for FC Volendam.

  • Defences are close

    Helmond Sport concede 1.65 a game, FC Volendam 1.59.

  • FC Volendam games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Helmond Sport matches, against 68% for FC Volendam. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Helmond Sport
FC Volendam
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1400.4
ELO
1473.6
66
ELO · Matches
69
1400.4
Current Team ELO
1473.6
1473.6
Current Opponent ELO
1400.4
-73.12
Current ELO Difference
73.12
0.40
Expected score
0.60
66
History Matches
69
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.04
45.09
Overperformance
47.03
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
69
0.95
PPG
1.30
22.7%
Win rate
37.7%
27.3%
Draw rate
17.4%
50.0%
Loss rate
44.9%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
53.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
42
1.32
PPG
1.21
35.1%
Win rate
35.7%
27.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
37.8%
Loss rate
50.0%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
37
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.12
Goals for per game
1.46
72.7%
Scoring rate
76.8%
59.1%
BTTS rate
65.2%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.36
83.8%
Scoring rate
71.4%
64.9%
BTTS rate
59.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
66
History Matches
69
1.12
Goals Mean
1.46
0.95
Goals Std
1.26
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
76.8%
30.3%
Scored 2+ rate
43.5%
6.1%
Scored 3+ rate
17.4%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
1.59
81.8%
Conceding rate
85.5%
1.51
Goals against per game
1.71
78.4%
Conceding rate
88.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
66
History Matches
69
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.59
1.29
Conceded Std
1.15
45.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.4%
24.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.3%
1.51
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.5%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.5%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
69
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.92
5.55
Stability score
6.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
67
18
Lead Matches
16
61.1%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.79
18
Trailing Matches
23
5.6%
Non-loss rate
21.7%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
36
Normal Rest History Matches
35
0.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
19
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.36
Portability PPG Range
1.20
79.31
Portability Score
53.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-73.12
PPG-0.35
GF-0.34
GA0.06
PPG-0.33
PPG0.11
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Failed-to-score rate4.1%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score-0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.84
Portability Score25.47
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.20
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-73.12
Current Opponent ELO73.12
Current ELO Difference-146.2
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Helmond Sport

W
Helmond Sport3–2FC Eindhoven30 Oct · home
Pick: Helmond Sport 47% · hit
L
Helmond Sport3–4Willem II27 Oct · home
Pick: Willem II 45% · hit
L
Jong AZ5–4Helmond Sport23 Oct · away
Pick: Jong AZ 48% · hit
L
Helmond Sport0–2NAC Breda16 Oct · home
Pick: Helmond Sport 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Volendam

L
FC Volendam1–2De Graafschap30 Oct · home
Pick: FC Volendam 51% · missed
L
FC Eindhoven5–3FC Volendam27 Oct · away
Pick: FC Volendam 40% · missed
W
FC Volendam6–2Jong Utrecht23 Oct · home
Pick: FC Volendam 59% · hit
D
Waalwijk1–1FC Volendam18 Oct · away
Pick: Waalwijk 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Helmond Sport and FC Volendam meet in Eerste Divisie on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Lavans Stadion, Helmond. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Helmond Sport win 37.3%, draw 25.8%, FC Volendam win 36.8%. The pick is Helmond Sport win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.4%. Both teams to score: 57.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.