ScoreProb
Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 14 2026

VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21

VVV Venlo Home · Elo 1,462
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Jong PSV U21 Away · Elo 1,458
Seacon - De Koel, Venlo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VVV Venlo win
VVV Venlo winPick
47.8%
Draw
23.2%
Jong PSV U21 win
29.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.1%
No37.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.2%
Under 2.531.8%

How much we know

VVV Venlo history70 matches
Jong PSV U21 history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why VVV Venlo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,462 against 1,458. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.51 goals a game over 70 matches for VVV Venlo, against 1.65 over 63 for Jong PSV U21.

  • VVV Venlo concede fewer

    VVV Venlo concede 1.70 a game, Jong PSV U21 1.92.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of VVV Venlo matches, against 70% for Jong PSV U21. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
VVV Venlo
Jong PSV U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.0
ELO
1458.1
70
ELO · Matches
63
1462.0
Current Team ELO
1458.1
1458.1
Current Opponent ELO
1462.0
3.92
Current ELO Difference
-3.92
0.51
Expected score
0.49
70
History Matches
63
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.49
Overperformance
47.71
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
2.10
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.48
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
63
1.29
PPG
1.22
37.1%
Win rate
34.9%
17.1%
Draw rate
17.5%
45.7%
Loss rate
47.6%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
69.8%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.8%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
31
1.47
PPG
1.06
44.7%
Win rate
29.0%
13.2%
Draw rate
19.4%
42.1%
Loss rate
51.6%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
93.5%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.0%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
58.1%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
38
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.65
70.0%
Scoring rate
84.1%
54.3%
BTTS rate
69.8%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.65
73.7%
Scoring rate
83.9%
57.9%
BTTS rate
74.2%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
63
1.51
Goals Mean
1.65
1.44
Goals Std
1.07
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
47.1%
Scored 2+ rate
54.0%
21.4%
Scored 3+ rate
23.8%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.70
Goals against per game
1.92
80.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.61
Goals against per game
2.19
81.6%
Conceding rate
90.3%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
63
1.70
Conceded Mean
1.92
1.39
Conceded Std
1.32
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.3%
25.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.0%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
2.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
63
0.94
Result entropy
0.93
2.15
Goal Difference Std
1.74
6.43
Stability score
6.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
62
17
Lead Matches
28
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.63
28
Trailing Matches
18
17.9%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
3.6%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.15
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.18
Rest days
74.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
11
0.63
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.36
43
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.02
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
18
Long Rest History Matches
14
2.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.52
0.82
Portability PPG Range
1.40
62.85
Portability Score
48.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO3.92
PPG0.06
GF-0.14
GA-0.22
PPG0.00
PPG0.41
PPG-0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate14.1%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Failed-to-score rate10.2%
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches7
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score-0.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate25.2%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate1.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.58
Portability Score14.00
Rest days1.14
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.74
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.04
Current Team ELO3.92
Current Opponent ELO-3.92
Current ELO Difference7.85
Expected score0.01
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.79
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

VVV Venlo

W
MVV1–2VVV Venlo31 Oct · away
Pick: MVV 47% · missed
L
VVV Venlo0–2Vitesse28 Oct · home
Pick: VVV Venlo 46% · missed
W
Dordrecht2–4VVV Venlo24 Oct · away
Pick: Dordrecht 37% · missed
D
VVV Venlo4–4Jong AZ16 Oct · home
Pick: VVV Venlo 55% · missed
W
VVV Venlo2–0Roda4 Oct · home
Pick: VVV Venlo 45% · hit

Jong PSV U21

L
Jong PSV U210–2NAC Breda2 Nov · home
Pick: Jong PSV U21 42% · missed
W
Ipswich Town U210–7Jong PSV U2127 Oct · away
Pick: Jong PSV U21 44% · hit
W
FC Eindhoven1–2Jong PSV U2123 Oct · away
Pick: FC Eindhoven 39% · missed
L
Jong PSV U210–1Dordrecht19 Oct · home
Pick: Jong PSV U21 45% · missed
D
Jong PSV U211–1Jong Ajax31 Aug · home
Pick: Jong PSV U21 65% · missed

About this match

VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 meet in Eerste Divisie on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Seacon - De Koel, Venlo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: VVV Venlo win 47.8%, draw 23.2%, Jong PSV U21 win 29.0%. The pick is VVV Venlo win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.2%. Both teams to score: 62.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.