ScoreProb
Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 14 2026

Heracles vs Roda

Heracles Home · Elo 1,433
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Roda Away · Elo 1,503
Polman Stadion, Armello Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Heracles win
Heracles winPick
53.4%
Draw
17.4%
Roda win
29.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.6%
No36.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.8%
Under 2.535.2%

How much we know

Heracles history64 matches
Roda history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Heracles are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Roda are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,503 against 1,433. On rating alone Roda would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.53 goals a game over 64 matches for Heracles, against 1.64 over 69 for Roda.

  • Roda concede fewer

    Heracles concede 2.14 a game, Roda 1.57.

  • Heracles games more often go over 2.5 goals

    72% of Heracles matches, against 58% for Roda. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Heracles
Roda
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1433.0
ELO
1503.0
64
ELO · Matches
69
1433.0
Current Team ELO
1503.0
1503.0
Current Opponent ELO
1433.0
-69.97
Current ELO Difference
69.97
0.40
Expected score
0.60
64
History Matches
69
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
46.56
Overperformance
50.05
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.80
3.60
Goals for per game
1.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.50
1.90
Goals for per game
2.00
2.30
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.97
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.72
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
69
1.11
PPG
1.33
31.3%
Win rate
33.3%
17.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
51.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
90.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
71.9%
Over 2.5 rate
58.0%
45.3%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
35
1.41
PPG
1.40
41.2%
Win rate
37.1%
17.6%
Draw rate
28.6%
41.2%
Loss rate
34.3%
91.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
65.7%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
34
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.64
70.3%
Scoring rate
81.2%
65.6%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.80
79.4%
Scoring rate
82.9%
70.6%
BTTS rate
71.4%
4.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
64
History Matches
69
1.53
Goals Mean
1.64
1.62
Goals Std
1.56
70.3%
Scored 1+ rate
81.2%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
44.9%
21.9%
Scored 3+ rate
20.3%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.14
Goals against per game
1.57
92.2%
Conceding rate
81.2%
1.88
Goals against per game
1.63
88.2%
Conceding rate
85.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
69
2.14
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.43
Conceded Std
1.30
59.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.0%
32.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.7%
1.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
7.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
7.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
7.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
69
0.92
Result entropy
1.00
2.37
Goal Difference Std
2.09
8.28
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
69
17
Lead Matches
18
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.78
27
Trailing Matches
25
22.2%
Non-loss rate
32.0%
7.4%
Trailing Win Rate
12.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.98
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
1.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
8
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.13
33
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
27
Long Rest History Matches
18
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.85
Portability PPG Std
0.39
2.44
Portability PPG Range
1.13
37.13
Portability Score
56.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-69.97
PPG-0.22
GF-0.11
GA0.58
PPG1.00
PPG0.01
PPG0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate10.8%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.75
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.58
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score8.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.84
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate9.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.45
Portability PPG Range1.31
Portability Score-18.93
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.21
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Current Team ELO-69.97
Current Opponent ELO69.97
Current ELO Difference-139.9
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Heracles

W
Heracles2–0FC OSS2 Nov · home
Pick: Heracles 57% · hit
L
De Treffers1–0Heracles29 Oct · away
Pick: De Treffers 55% · hit
D
NAC Breda1–1Heracles23 Oct · away
Pick: Heracles 41% · missed
W
MVV1–5Heracles18 Oct · away
Pick: Heracles 40% · hit
W
FC Eindhoven1–3Heracles30 Aug · away
Pick: FC Eindhoven 44% · missed

Roda

W
Roda2–1Jong AZ30 Oct · home
Pick: Roda 55% · hit
W
Roda1–0De Graafschap27 Oct · home
Pick: De Graafschap 39% · missed
W
Almere City FC2–3Roda23 Oct · away
Pick: Almere City FC 63% · missed
W
Jong Utrecht1–2Roda19 Oct · away
Pick: Roda 60% · hit
L
VVV Venlo2–0Roda4 Oct · away
Pick: VVV Venlo 45% · hit

About this match

Heracles and Roda meet in Eerste Divisie on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Polman Stadion, Armello. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Heracles win 53.4%, draw 17.4%, Roda win 29.1%. The pick is Heracles win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.8%. Both teams to score: 63.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.