ScoreProb
Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 14 2026

FC OSS vs Waalwijk

FC OSS Home · Elo 1,428
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Waalwijk Away · Elo 1,493
Frans Heesen Stadion, Os Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Waalwijk win
FC OSS win
27.0%
Draw
19.5%
Waalwijk winPick
53.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.1%
No35.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.4%
Under 2.535.6%

How much we know

FC OSS history64 matches
Waalwijk history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Waalwijk are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Waalwijk are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,493 against 1,428. On rating alone Waalwijk would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Waalwijk score more

    1.30 goals a game over 64 matches for FC OSS, against 1.73 over 73 for Waalwijk.

  • Waalwijk concede fewer

    FC OSS concede 1.80 a game, Waalwijk 1.58.

  • Waalwijk games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of FC OSS matches, against 63% for Waalwijk. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC OSS
Waalwijk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1428.2
ELO
1493.3
64
ELO · Matches
73
1428.2
Current Team ELO
1493.3
1493.3
Current Opponent ELO
1428.2
-65.12
Current ELO Difference
65.12
0.41
Expected score
0.59
64
History Matches
73
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
45.59
Overperformance
49.97
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
3.40
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.50
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
2.16
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
73
1.02
PPG
1.33
23.4%
Win rate
34.2%
31.3%
Draw rate
30.1%
45.3%
Loss rate
35.6%
89.1%
Over 1.5 rate
90.4%
54.7%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.5%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
35
1.10
PPG
1.11
29.0%
Win rate
25.7%
22.6%
Draw rate
34.3%
48.4%
Loss rate
40.0%
96.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
67.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
35.5%
Over 3.5 rate
45.7%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
31
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.73
71.9%
Scoring rate
82.2%
60.9%
BTTS rate
68.5%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.63
74.2%
Scoring rate
77.1%
61.3%
BTTS rate
68.6%
0.33
Goals for per game
1.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
73
1.30
Goals Mean
1.73
1.15
Goals Std
1.55
71.9%
Scored 1+ rate
82.2%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
46.6%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.5%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.80
Goals against per game
1.58
82.8%
Conceding rate
82.2%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.69
83.9%
Conceding rate
85.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
73
1.80
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.47
Conceded Std
1.19
51.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.3%
26.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
73
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.79
Goal Difference Std
2.16
3.31
Stability score
0.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
72
15
Lead Matches
24
46.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.56
Lead Points Retention
0.76
27
Trailing Matches
22
33.3%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.01
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.57
34
Normal Rest History Matches
45
0.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.33
47.62
Portability Score
54.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-65.12
PPG-0.31
GF-0.43
GA0.22
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.02
PPG-1.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate10.3%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.53
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.41
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score3.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.01
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate6.1%
Trailing Win Rate2.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-6.86
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO-65.12
Current Opponent ELO65.12
Current ELO Difference-130.2
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC OSS

L
Heracles2–0FC OSS2 Nov · away
Pick: Heracles 57% · hit
W
PEC Zwolle1–2FC OSS28 Oct · away
Pick: FC OSS 41% · hit
D
FC OSS3–3Jong Ajax23 Oct · home
Pick: FC OSS 50% · missed
L
Den Bosch2–1FC OSS16 Oct · away
Pick: Den Bosch 57% · hit
L
Jong PSV U211–0FC OSS24 Aug · away
Pick: Jong PSV U21 56% · hit

Waalwijk

L
Waalwijk1–2Almere City FC30 Oct · home
Pick: Almere City FC 40% · hit
D
De Graafschap1–1Waalwijk23 Oct · away
Pick: Waalwijk 48% · missed
D
Waalwijk1–1FC Volendam18 Oct · home
Pick: Waalwijk 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC OSS and Waalwijk meet in Eerste Divisie on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Frans Heesen Stadion, Os. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: FC OSS win 27.0%, draw 19.5%, Waalwijk win 53.5%. The pick is Waalwijk win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.4%. Both teams to score: 64.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.