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Regionalliga - West Austria West - 16 2026

Dornbirn vs Swarovski Tirol II

Dornbirn Home · Elo 1,532
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Swarovski Tirol II Away · Elo 1,556
Stadion Birkenwiese, Dornbirn Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dornbirn win
Dornbirn winPick
56.8%
Draw
17.6%
Swarovski Tirol II win
25.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.0%
No43.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.7%
Under 2.530.3%

How much we know

Dornbirn history54 matches
Swarovski Tirol II history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.8%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Dornbirn are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,532 against 1,556. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Swarovski Tirol II score more

    1.87 goals a game over 54 matches for Dornbirn, against 2.27 over 30 for Swarovski Tirol II.

  • Swarovski Tirol II concede fewer

    Dornbirn concede 1.54 a game, Swarovski Tirol II 1.10.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Dornbirn matches, against 67% for Swarovski Tirol II. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dornbirn
Swarovski Tirol II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.8
ELO
1556.1
54
ELO · Matches
30
1531.8
Current Team ELO
1556.1
1556.1
Current Opponent ELO
1531.8
-24.32
Current ELO Difference
24.32
0.47
Expected score
0.53
54
History Matches
30
0.03
Residual Mean
0.10
52.37
Overperformance
55.84
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.70
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.90
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.46
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
30
1.56
PPG
1.93
46.3%
Win rate
60.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
13.3%
37.0%
Loss rate
26.7%
79.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
14
2.00
PPG
2.00
64.3%
Win rate
64.3%
7.1%
Draw rate
7.1%
28.6%
Loss rate
28.6%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
64.3%
2.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.03
28
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.87
Goals for per game
2.27
77.8%
Scoring rate
83.3%
48.1%
BTTS rate
56.7%
2.32
Goals for per game
2.86
82.1%
Scoring rate
78.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
30
1.87
Goals Mean
2.27
1.68
Goals Std
1.91
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
46.3%
Scored 2+ rate
56.7%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
36.7%
2.32
Venue Goals Mean
2.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.10
64.8%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.07
64.3%
Conceding rate
57.1%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
30
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.56
Conceded Std
0.98
42.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
25.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
30
0.93
Result entropy
0.84
2.55
Goal Difference Std
2.40
6.88
Stability score
15.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
30
17
Lead Matches
7
94.1%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
1.00
19
Trailing Matches
10
15.8%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.47
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.85
Rest days
83.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
11
1.66
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.45
20
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
0.25
75.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.71
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
0.25
2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.91
1.14
Portability PPG Range
2.08
50.95
Portability Score
35.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-24.32
PPG-0.38
GF-0.40
GA0.44
PPG2.25
PPG0.00
PPG1.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches24
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.56
History Matches24
Conceded Mean0.44
Conceded Std0.58
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Conceded 2+ rate12.6%
Conceded 3+ rate19.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.89
History Matches24
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score-8.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches23
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.34
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches23
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.50
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.43
Portability PPG Range-0.94
Portability Score15.58
Rest days1.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO-24.32
Current Opponent ELO24.32
Current ELO Difference-48.64
Expected score-0.07
History Matches24
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-3.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dornbirn

D
Dornbirn0–0SVG Reichenau7 Nov · home
Pick: Dornbirn 61% · missed
L
Imst3–0Dornbirn31 Oct · away
Pick: Imst 49% · hit
L
Dornbirn0–2Rheindorf Altach II23 Oct · home
Pick: Dornbirn 66% · missed
D
Dornbirn0–0Kufstein17 Oct · home
Pick: Dornbirn 63% · missed
W
Lustenau1–4Dornbirn29 Aug · away
Pick: Dornbirn 59% · hit

Swarovski Tirol II

L
Swarovski Tirol II0–2Kufstein31 Oct · home
Pick: Kufstein 41% · hit
L
Hohenems5–2Swarovski Tirol II24 Oct · away
Pick: Hohenems 58% · hit
D
Swarovski Tirol II2–2Kitzbühel18 Oct · home
Pick: Kitzbühel 50% · missed
W
Swarovski Tirol II6–1Lauterach4 Oct · home
Pick: Swarovski Tirol II 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dornbirn and Swarovski Tirol II meet in Regionalliga - West on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Birkenwiese, Dornbirn. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Dornbirn win 56.8%, draw 17.6%, Swarovski Tirol II win 25.6%. The pick is Dornbirn win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.7%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.