ScoreProb
Women's Championship England Round 7 2026

Durham W vs Sunderland W

Durham W Home · Elo 1,449
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sunderland W Away · Elo 1,448
Maiden Castle, Durham Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sunderland W win
Durham W win
36.2%
Draw
25.8%
Sunderland W winPick
38.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%

How much we know

Durham W history35 matches
Sunderland W history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Sunderland W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,449 against 1,448. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.37 goals a game over 35 matches for Durham W, against 1.25 over 36 for Sunderland W.

  • Defences are close

    Durham W concede 1.51 a game, Sunderland W 1.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Durham W matches, against 50% for Sunderland W. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 3 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Durham W
Sunderland W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1448.8
ELO
1447.6
35
ELO · Matches
36
1448.8
Current Team ELO
1447.6
1447.6
Current Opponent ELO
1448.8
1.20
Current ELO Difference
-1.20
0.50
Expected score
0.50
35
History Matches
36
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.08
45.55
Overperformance
45.07
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
36
1.09
PPG
1.11
25.7%
Win rate
30.6%
31.4%
Draw rate
19.4%
42.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
91.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
19
1.56
PPG
1.05
38.9%
Win rate
31.6%
38.9%
Draw rate
10.5%
22.2%
Loss rate
57.9%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
18
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.37
Goals for per game
1.25
85.7%
Scoring rate
72.2%
74.3%
BTTS rate
58.3%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.32
88.9%
Scoring rate
68.4%
77.8%
BTTS rate
52.6%
35
History Matches
36
1.37
Goals Mean
1.25
1.12
Goals Std
1.16
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.2%
31.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
11.4%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.51
Goals against per game
1.56
85.7%
Conceding rate
86.1%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.74
83.3%
Conceding rate
84.2%
35
History Matches
36
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.02
Conceded Std
1.14
45.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.7%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
36
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.76
2.05
Stability score
6.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
36
11
Lead Matches
7
54.5%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.81
8
Trailing Matches
15
12.5%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.9
Rest days
189.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
15
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.90
Portability PPG Range
0.95
60.58
Portability Score
54.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO1.20
PPG-0.03
GF0.12
GA-0.04
PPG0.50
PPG0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate13.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Conceded 2+ rate4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.39
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-4.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.05
Portability Score5.68
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO1.20
Current Opponent ELO-1.20
Current ELO Difference2.40
Expected score0.00
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Durham W

L
Durham W1–5Newcastle United W1 Nov · home
Pick: Newcastle United W 44% · hit
L
Watford W4–2Durham W25 Oct · away
Pick: Durham W 46% · missed
L
Durham W0–5Birmingham City W21 Oct · home
Pick: Birmingham City W 46% · hit
L
Burnley W3–2Durham W18 Oct · away
Pick: Durham W 50% · missed
L
Durham W0–3Newcastle United W4 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle United W 44% · hit

Sunderland W

W
Sunderland W1–0Sheffield United W1 Nov · home
Pick: Sunderland W 47% · hit
L
Ipswich Town W3–1Sunderland W25 Oct · away
Pick: Sunderland W 43% · missed
W
Newcastle United W0–1Sunderland W18 Oct · away
Pick: Newcastle United W 51% · missed
W
Sunderland W3–1Leicester City FC W4 Oct · home
Pick: Sunderland W 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Durham W and Sunderland W meet in Women's Championship on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Maiden Castle, Durham. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Durham W win 36.2%, draw 25.8%, Sunderland W win 38.0%. The pick is Sunderland W win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.5%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.