ScoreProb
Women's Championship England Round 7 2026

Southampton W vs Sheffield United W

Southampton W Home · Elo 1,526
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sheffield United W Away · Elo 1,422
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Southampton W win
Southampton W winPick
44.6%
Draw
18.8%
Sheffield United W win
36.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.2%

How much we know

Southampton W history26 matches
Sheffield United W history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Southampton W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Southampton W are rated 104 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,526 against 1,422. On rating alone Southampton W would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Southampton W score far more

    2.15 goals a game over 26 matches for Southampton W, against 0.83 over 35 for Sheffield United W.

  • Southampton W concede fewer

    Southampton W concede 1.15 a game, Sheffield United W 1.89.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Southampton W matches, against 54% for Sheffield United W. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 2 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Southampton W
Sheffield United W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1526.0
ELO
1421.9
26
ELO · Matches
35
1526.0
Current Team ELO
1421.9
1421.9
Current Opponent ELO
1526.0
104.1
Current ELO Difference
-104.1
0.65
Expected score
0.35
26
History Matches
35
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.12
53.21
Overperformance
42.20
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
3.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.00
Goals against per game
2.60
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
26
Matches
35
1.62
PPG
0.86
46.2%
Win rate
20.0%
23.1%
Draw rate
25.7%
30.8%
Loss rate
54.3%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
20
1.57
PPG
0.80
42.9%
Win rate
20.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
20.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
60.0%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
2.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
14
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.15
Goals for per game
0.83
76.9%
Scoring rate
60.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
54.3%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.85
85.7%
Scoring rate
65.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
55.0%
26
History Matches
35
2.15
Goals Mean
0.83
2.20
Goals Std
0.81
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
53.8%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
30.8%
Scored 3+ rate
2.9%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.15
Goals against per game
1.89
69.2%
Conceding rate
88.6%
1.07
Goals against per game
2.00
71.4%
Conceding rate
90.0%
26
History Matches
35
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.89
1.06
Conceded Std
1.39
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.7%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
26
History Matches
35
0.96
Result entropy
0.91
2.51
Goal Difference Std
1.69
3.71
Stability score
8.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
26
Eligible Matches
35
12
Lead Matches
8
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.75
5
Trailing Matches
15
40.0%
Non-loss rate
6.7%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
1.15
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.34
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
190.0
Rest days
190.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
16
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
9
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.72
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.63
—
Portability PPG Range
1.71
—
Portability Score
44.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
26
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO104.1
PPG0.76
GF1.33
GA-0.73
PPG0.77
PPG1.60
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate18.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-9
Goals Mean1.33
Goals Std1.39
Scored 1+ rate16.9%
Scored 2+ rate33.8%
Scored 3+ rate27.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.84
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.73
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.65
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.82
Stability score-5.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate20.8%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.74
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.28
Current Team ELO104.1
Current Opponent ELO-104.1
Current ELO Difference208.2
Expected score0.29
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance11.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Southampton W

D
Leicester City FC W2–2Southampton W25 Oct · away
Pick: Southampton W 52% · missed
W
Southampton W3–2Crystal Palace W21 Oct · home
Pick: Crystal Palace W 41% · missed
L
Bristol City W2–1Southampton W4 Oct · away
Pick: Bristol City W 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sheffield United W

L
Sunderland W1–0Sheffield United W1 Nov · away
Pick: Sunderland W 47% · hit
L
Sheffield United W1–2Everton W28 Oct · home
Pick: Everton W 49% · hit
W
Burnley W3–4Sheffield United W25 Oct · away
Pick: Burnley W 45% · missed
L
Sheffield United W1–2Ipswich Town W4 Oct · home
Pick: Sheffield United W 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Southampton W and Sheffield United W meet in Women's Championship on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Southampton W win 44.6%, draw 18.8%, Sheffield United W win 36.6%. The pick is Southampton W win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.8%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.