Ipswich Town W vs Bristol City W
Match result probability Model pick: Bristol City W win
Ipswich Town W win
28.8%
Draw
21.8%
Bristol City W winPick
49.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes60.8%
No39.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%
How much we know
Ipswich Town W history27 matches
Bristol City W history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Bristol City W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Bristol City W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Bristol City W are rated 55 Elo points higher
Elo 1,507 against 1,452. On rating alone Bristol City W would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Bristol City W score more
1.30 goals a game over 27 matches for Ipswich Town W, against 1.77 over 35 for Bristol City W.
-
Bristol City W concede fewer
Ipswich Town W concede 2.00 a game, Bristol City W 1.51.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
67% of Ipswich Town W matches, against 63% for Bristol City W. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 2 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bristol City W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1451.9
ELO
1506.5
27
ELO · Matches
35
1451.9
Current Team ELO
1506.5
1506.5
Current Opponent ELO
1451.9
-54.63
Current ELO Difference
54.63
0.42
Expected score
0.58
27
History Matches
35
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.00
45.20
Overperformance
50.13
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.04
Overall performance9 signals 90
27
Matches
35
0.96
PPG
1.37
25.9%
Win rate
37.1%
18.5%
Draw rate
25.7%
55.6%
Loss rate
37.1%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
91.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.9%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals 100
14
Matches
19
1.00
PPG
1.21
28.6%
Win rate
26.3%
14.3%
Draw rate
42.1%
57.1%
Loss rate
31.6%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
94.7%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
52.6%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
14
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.30
Goals for per game
1.77
70.4%
Scoring rate
80.0%
63.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.68
78.6%
Scoring rate
84.2%
78.6%
BTTS rate
73.7%
27
History Matches
35
1.30
Goals Mean
1.77
1.27
Goals Std
1.49
70.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
54.3%
14.8%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.00
Goals against per game
1.51
88.9%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.07
Goals against per game
1.79
100.0%
Conceding rate
89.5%
27
History Matches
35
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.61
Conceded Std
1.13
51.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
25.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
2.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
27
History Matches
35
0.90
Result entropy
0.99
2.40
Goal Difference Std
2.17
9.99
Stability score
1.24
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
27
Eligible Matches
35
10
Lead Matches
13
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.87
9
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
27
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
190.0
Rest days
190.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
13
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.05
Portability PPG Range
1.35
48.89
Portability Score
49.63
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
27
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-54.63
PPG-0.41
GF-0.48
GA0.49
PPG-0.21
PPG-0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate9.6%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.48
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.49
Conceded Std0.48
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate8.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score8.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.30
Portability Score-0.74
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Current Team ELO-54.63
Current Opponent ELO54.63
Current ELO Difference-109.3
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-4.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Ipswich Town W
W
Watford W1–4Ipswich Town W31 Oct · away
Pick: Ipswich Town W 49% · hit W
Ipswich Town W3–1Sunderland W25 Oct · home
Pick: Sunderland W 43% · missed W
Sheffield United W1–2Ipswich Town W4 Oct · away
Pick: Sheffield United W 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Bristol City W
L
Wolverhampton W2–1Bristol City W1 Nov · away
Pick: Bristol City W 47% · missed L
Bristol City W1–6Tottenham Hotspur W28 Oct · home
Pick: Tottenham Hotspur W 41% · hit W
Bristol City W4–2Wolverhampton W25 Oct · home
Pick: Bristol City W 78% · hit L
Charlton Athletic W2–0Bristol City W21 Oct · away
Pick: Charlton Athletic W 51% · hit W
Bristol City W2–1Southampton W4 Oct · home
Pick: Bristol City W 52% · hit About this match
Ipswich Town W and Bristol City W meet in Women's Championship on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ipswich Town W win 28.8%, draw 21.8%, Bristol City W win 49.5%. The pick is Bristol City W win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.9%. Both teams to score: 60.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.