Wolverhampton W vs Nottingham Forest W
Match result probability Model pick: Nottingham Forest W win
Wolverhampton W win
23.2%
Draw
25.3%
Nottingham Forest W winPick
51.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.4%
No48.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%
How much we know
Wolverhampton W history4 matches
Nottingham Forest W history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Nottingham Forest W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Nottingham Forest W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,493 against 1,491. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.25 goals a game over 4 matches for Wolverhampton W, against 1.19 over 27 for Nottingham Forest W.
-
Nottingham Forest W concede fewer
Wolverhampton W concede 2.25 a game, Nottingham Forest W 1.56.
-
Wolverhampton W games more often go over 2.5 goals
75% of Wolverhampton W matches, against 56% for Nottingham Forest W. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 2 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nottingham Forest W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1493.5
ELO
1490.6
4
ELO · Matches
27
1493.5
Current Team ELO
1490.6
1490.6
Current Opponent ELO
1493.5
2.83
Current ELO Difference
-2.83
0.50
Expected score
0.50
4
History Matches
27
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.19
Overperformance
48.79
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
4
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
2.00
1.25
Goals for per game
1.20
2.25
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
4
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.25
Goals for per game
0.90
2.25
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
2.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
2.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
3.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.86
Overall performance9 signals 90
4
Matches
27
1.50
PPG
1.37
50.0%
Win rate
40.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
14.8%
50.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
3.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals 100
4
Matches
14
1.50
PPG
1.36
50.0%
Win rate
35.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
50.0%
Loss rate
35.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
3.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
4
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.25
Goals for per game
1.19
75.0%
Scoring rate
70.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
4
History Matches
27
1.25
Goals Mean
1.19
0.83
Goals Std
1.06
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.4%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.25
Goals against per game
1.56
75.0%
Conceding rate
81.5%
2.25
Goals against per game
1.43
75.0%
Conceding rate
78.6%
4
History Matches
27
2.25
Conceded Mean
1.56
2.28
Conceded Std
1.23
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.5%
2.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
4
History Matches
27
0.63
Result entropy
0.92
3.08
Goal Difference Std
1.77
36.91
Stability score
8.14
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
4
Eligible Matches
27
1
Lead Matches
7
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.90
2
Trailing Matches
13
0.0%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals 50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
0.25
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
1.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
330.1
Rest days
190.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
15
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
3
Long Rest History Matches
10
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.02
—
Portability PPG Range
0.03
—
Portability Score
97.06
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
4
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO2.83
PPG0.13
GF0.06
GA0.69
PPG0.14
PPG-0.50
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-23
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate4.6%
Scored 2+ rate16.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches-23
Conceded Mean0.69
Conceded Std1.05
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Conceded 2+ rate5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate6.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.82
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.78
History Matches-23
Result entropy-0.29
Goal Difference Std1.32
Stability score28.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.22
Eligible Matches-23
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate14.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches-23
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.58
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days140.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO2.83
Current Opponent ELO-2.83
Current ELO Difference5.67
Expected score0.01
History Matches-23
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Wolverhampton W
W
Wolverhampton W2–1Bristol City W1 Nov · home
Pick: Bristol City W 47% · missed L
Wolverhampton W0–6Brighton W28 Oct · home
Pick: Brighton W 49% · hit L
Bristol City W4–2Wolverhampton W25 Oct · away
Pick: Bristol City W 78% · hit D
Wolverhampton W2–2Watford W4 Oct · home
Pick: Watford W 49% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Nottingham Forest W
W
Nottingham Forest W4–0Burnley W1 Nov · home
Pick: Nottingham Forest W 59% · hit D
Nottingham Forest W2–2Newcastle United W25 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle United W 45% · missed W
Nottingham Forest W2–0Burnley W4 Oct · home
Pick: Nottingham Forest W 59% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Wolverhampton W and Nottingham Forest W meet in Women's Championship on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at New Bucks Head, Telford. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Wolverhampton W win 23.2%, draw 25.3%, Nottingham Forest W win 51.5%. The pick is Nottingham Forest W win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.