ScoreProb
2. Bundesliga Germany Round 11 2026

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Dynamo Dresden Home · Elo 1,553
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Away · Elo 1,479
Rudolf-Harbig Stadion, Dresden Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dynamo Dresden win
Dynamo Dresden winPick
46.9%
Draw
24.9%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth win
28.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.4%
No39.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.9%
Under 2.538.1%

How much we know

Dynamo Dresden history63 matches
SpVgg Greuther Fürth history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dynamo Dresden are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dynamo Dresden are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,553 against 1,479. On rating alone Dynamo Dresden would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Dynamo Dresden score more

    1.97 goals a game over 63 matches for Dynamo Dresden, against 1.41 over 64 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

  • Dynamo Dresden concede fewer

    Dynamo Dresden concede 1.33 a game, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.63.

  • Dynamo Dresden games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Dynamo Dresden matches, against 56% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.2
ELO
1478.9
63
ELO · Matches
64
1553.2
Current Team ELO
1478.9
1478.9
Current Opponent ELO
1553.2
74.38
Current ELO Difference
-74.38
0.61
Expected score
0.39
63
History Matches
64
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
53.34
Overperformance
48.86
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.60
3.50
Goals for per game
1.80
0.90
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
3.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
3.93
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
4.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
64
1.49
PPG
1.22
42.9%
Win rate
34.4%
20.6%
Draw rate
18.8%
36.5%
Loss rate
46.9%
82.5%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
68.3%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
34.9%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
32
1.75
PPG
1.06
53.1%
Win rate
31.3%
15.6%
Draw rate
12.5%
31.3%
Loss rate
56.3%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
65.6%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
32
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.97
Goals for per game
1.41
82.5%
Scoring rate
67.2%
60.3%
BTTS rate
53.1%
1.84
Goals for per game
1.25
84.4%
Scoring rate
62.5%
56.3%
BTTS rate
56.3%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
64
1.97
Goals Mean
1.41
2.06
Goals Std
1.31
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
67.2%
55.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.8%
23.8%
Scored 3+ rate
21.9%
1.84
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.63
74.6%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.69
68.8%
Conceding rate
90.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
64
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.04
Conceded Std
1.29
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.3%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.3%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.4%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.4%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
64
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
2.50
Goal Difference Std
1.78
3.82
Stability score
5.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
63
27
Lead Matches
16
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.81
13
Trailing Matches
20
7.7%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.98
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.17
Rest days
75.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
26
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
34
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.29
Portability PPG Range
0.89
49.74
Portability Score
56.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO74.38
PPG0.27
GF0.56
GA-0.29
PPG1.00
PPG0.69
PPG0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate21.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.56
Goals Std0.75
Scored 1+ rate15.4%
Scored 2+ rate11.8%
Scored 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std2.76
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.72
Stability score-1.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.87
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate2.8%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.41
Portability Score-6.59
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO74.38
Current Opponent ELO-74.38
Current ELO Difference148.8
Expected score0.21
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dynamo Dresden

L
Hannover 962–1Dynamo Dresden1 Nov · away
Pick: Hannover 96 42% · hit
W
Dynamo Dresden2–0FC Schalke 0428 Oct · home
Pick: Dynamo Dresden 53% · hit
L
Holstein Kiel3–0Dynamo Dresden25 Oct · away
Pick: Holstein Kiel 48% · hit
W
Dynamo Dresden2–01. FC Magdeburg18 Oct · home
Pick: Dynamo Dresden 51% · hit
L
1. FC Heidenheim5–3Dynamo Dresden29 Aug · away
Pick: 1. FC Heidenheim 45% · hit

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

W
SpVgg Greuther Fürth1–0Holstein Kiel1 Nov · home
Pick: Holstein Kiel 40% · missed
L
VfL Osnabrück3–0SpVgg Greuther Fürth25 Oct · away
Pick: VfL Osnabrück 40% · hit
W
SpVgg Greuther Fürth2–0Eintracht Braunschweig17 Oct · home
Pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 39% · hit
W
Energie Cottbus3–4SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 Aug · away
Pick: Energie Cottbus 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet in 2. Bundesliga on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Rudolf-Harbig Stadion, Dresden. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Dynamo Dresden win 46.9%, draw 24.9%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth win 28.2%. The pick is Dynamo Dresden win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.9%. Both teams to score: 60.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.