East Bengal W vs Hwacheon KSPO W
What we said before kickoff Result: Hwacheon KSPO W win
East Bengal W win
16.7%
Draw
23.8%
Hwacheon KSPO W winPick Result
59.5%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickHwacheon KSPO W win · 59.5%
What happenedHwacheon KSPO W win · we gave it 59.5%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 51.3%
What happenedOver · 5 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 52.1%
What happenedYes · 1–4
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Hwacheon KSPO W win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
60%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.7
on average A pick at 60% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
GoalF. Ikwaput · assist A. Oraon
17' 26'
GoalS. Lee
SubstitutionR. Sulanjana off · R. Haldar on
46' 53'
Penalty goalW. Jae-Eun
56'
GoalMun Eun-Ju · assist Choi Jeong-Min
67'
SubstitutionMun Eun-Ju off · E. Ko on
SubstitutionA. Oraon off · S. Debnath on
74' 76'
GoalW. Jae-Eun · assist Kim Hyeon-A
76'
SubstitutionChoi Jeong-Min off · S. Kitakata on
88'
SubstitutionLee Su-Bin off · S. Mok on
89'
SubstitutionW. Jae-Eun off · K. Min jeong on
89'
SubstitutionS. Lee off · Seo Min-A on
SubstitutionO. Anokye off · N. Priyangka on
89' Both teams to score
Yes47.9%
No52.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%
How much we know
East Bengal W history6 matches
Hwacheon KSPO W history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 14:30 UTC
- Full time: 1–4Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Hwacheon KSPO W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Hwacheon KSPO W are rated 121 Elo points higher
Elo 1,625 against 1,504. On rating alone Hwacheon KSPO W would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.67 goals a game over 6 matches for East Bengal W, against 1.82 over 50 for Hwacheon KSPO W.
-
Hwacheon KSPO W concede fewer
East Bengal W concede 1.17 a game, Hwacheon KSPO W 0.74.
-
East Bengal W games more often go over 2.5 goals
50% of East Bengal W matches, against 36% for Hwacheon KSPO W. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hwacheon KSPO W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1503.6
ELO
1624.8
6
ELO · Matches
50
1503.6
Current Team ELO
1624.8
1624.8
Current Opponent ELO
1503.6
-121.2
Current ELO Difference
121.2
0.33
Expected score
0.67
6
History Matches
50
0.09
Residual Mean
0.13
52.12
Overperformance
59.16
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
6
Matches
10
1.67
PPG
1.90
1.67
Goals for per game
1.40
1.17
Goals against per game
0.40
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
1.07
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.41
Overall performance9 signals 90
6
Matches
50
1.67
PPG
2.08
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
28.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
12.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals 100
5
Matches
23
1.40
PPG
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
56.5%
20.0%
Draw rate
30.4%
40.0%
Loss rate
13.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.9%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
2.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
5
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.82
66.7%
Scoring rate
82.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
46.0%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.65
60.0%
Scoring rate
73.9%
20.0%
BTTS rate
34.8%
3.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
0.0%
BTTS rate
—
6
History Matches
50
1.67
Goals Mean
1.82
1.49
Goals Std
1.45
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
82.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
56.0%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.17
Goals against per game
0.74
66.7%
Conceding rate
56.0%
1.20
Goals against per game
0.61
60.0%
Conceding rate
47.8%
0.00
Goals against per game
—
0.0%
Conceding rate
—
6
History Matches
50
1.17
Conceded Mean
0.74
1.07
Conceded Std
0.80
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.0%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.0%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
0.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
52.2%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
52.2%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
6
History Matches
50
0.92
Result entropy
0.84
2.43
Goal Difference Std
1.37
7.94
Stability score
16.50
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
6
Eligible Matches
49
3
Lead Matches
28
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.90
2
Trailing Matches
7
0.0%
Non-loss rate
57.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.27
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.10
Rest days
75.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
9
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
27
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.15
2
Long Rest History Matches
13
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
0
3.00
PPG
—
100.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
0
3.00
Current Competition PPG
—
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
2
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.03
—
Portability PPG Range
0.05
—
Portability Score
95.24
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
6
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-121.2
PPG-0.41
GF-0.15
GA0.43
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
PPG-0.23
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-44
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate15.3%
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate13.9%
History Matches-44
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches-44
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate19.3%
Conceded 3+ rate12.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches-44
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std1.06
Stability score-8.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.02
Eligible Matches-43
Lead Matches-25
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.57
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-43
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches2
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-2.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-26
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match1.08
Current Team ELO-121.2
Current Opponent ELO121.2
Current ELO Difference-242.4
Expected score-0.34
History Matches-44
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-7.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
East Bengal W
W
Hồ Chí Minh City W1–2East Bengal W1 Nov · away
Pick: East Bengal W 48% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Hwacheon KSPO W
L
Hwacheon KSPO W1–2April W1 Nov · home
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 55% · missed D
Hwacheon KSPO W1–1Gumi Sportstoto W15 Oct · home
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 66% · missed W
Gyeongju W1–2Hwacheon KSPO W7 Oct · away
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 49% · hit D
Changnyeong W1–1Hwacheon KSPO W29 Aug · away
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 80% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
East Bengal W and Hwacheon KSPO W finished 1–4 in AFC Women's Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: East Bengal W win 16.7%, draw 23.8%, Hwacheon KSPO W win 59.5%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.