ScoreProb
Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

East Stirlingshire vs Musselburgh Athletic

East Stirlingshire Home · Elo 1,377
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Musselburgh Athletic Away · Elo 1,470
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: East Stirlingshire win
East Stirlingshire winPick
50.1%
Draw
17.3%
Musselburgh Athletic win
32.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.1%
No38.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.7%
Under 2.530.3%

How much we know

East Stirlingshire history50 matches
Musselburgh Athletic history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why East Stirlingshire are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Musselburgh Athletic are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,470 against 1,377. On rating alone Musselburgh Athletic would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • East Stirlingshire score more

    1.42 goals a game over 50 matches for East Stirlingshire, against 1.13 over 8 for Musselburgh Athletic.

  • Musselburgh Athletic concede fewer

    East Stirlingshire concede 2.44 a game, Musselburgh Athletic 2.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    72% of East Stirlingshire matches, against 75% for Musselburgh Athletic. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
East Stirlingshire
Musselburgh Athletic@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1376.7
ELO
1470.5
50
ELO · Matches
8
1376.7
Current Team ELO
1470.5
1470.5
Current Opponent ELO
1376.7
-93.76
Current ELO Difference
93.76
0.37
Expected score
0.63
50
History Matches
8
-0.12
Residual Mean
-0.14
41.37
Overperformance
46.02
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
8
1.10
PPG
0.88
1.40
Goals for per game
1.13
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
25.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.13
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.05
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.03
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
8
0.80
PPG
0.88
22.0%
Win rate
25.0%
14.0%
Draw rate
12.5%
64.0%
Loss rate
62.5%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
72.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
54.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
2
0.76
PPG
1.50
24.0%
Win rate
50.0%
4.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
72.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
96.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
88.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
25
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.13
68.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
62.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
72.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
64.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
50
History Matches
8
1.42
Goals Mean
1.13
1.39
Goals Std
1.05
68.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.44
Goals against per game
2.00
88.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
2.84
Goals against per game
1.50
92.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
8
2.44
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.56
Conceded Std
1.12
68.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
75.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
2.84
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
8.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
12.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
8.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
8
0.81
Result entropy
0.82
2.04
Goal Difference Std
2.03
18.63
Stability score
18.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
7
11
Lead Matches
2
63.6%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.17
18
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.98
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
1.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Normal Rest History Matches
4
0.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
3
0.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.80
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.80
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.41
Portability PPG Std
—
1.01
Portability PPG Range
—
54.76
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-93.76
PPG-0.08
GF0.30
GA0.44
PPG0.20
PPG-0.74
PPG0.20
PPG0.23
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches42
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Failed-to-score rate28.0%
History Matches42
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate2.5%
Scored 3+ rate9.5%
Venue Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Std0.38
History Matches42
Conceded Mean0.44
Conceded Std0.45
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate25.0%
Venue Conceded Mean1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches42
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score0.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches42
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate63.6%
Lead Points Retention0.50
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches42
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match0.55
Current Team ELO-93.76
Current Opponent ELO93.76
Current ELO Difference-187.5
Expected score-0.26
History Matches42
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance-4.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

East Stirlingshire

W
Berwick Rangers2–5East Stirlingshire31 Oct · away
Pick: Berwick Rangers 48% · missed
L
Brechin3–1East Stirlingshire27 Oct · away
Pick: Brechin 72% · hit
D
Civil Service Strollers3–3East Stirlingshire17 Oct · away
Pick: Civil Service Strollers 53% · missed
W
Dunipace0–3East Stirlingshire29 Aug · away
Pick: Dunipace 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Musselburgh Athletic

W
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn1–3Musselburgh Athletic31 Oct · away
Pick: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 39% · missed
D
Broxburn Athletic0–0Musselburgh Athletic17 Oct · away
Pick: Broxburn Athletic 66% · missed
L
Brechin3–1Musselburgh Athletic29 Aug · away
Pick: Brechin 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

East Stirlingshire and Musselburgh Athletic meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: East Stirlingshire win 50.1%, draw 17.3%, Musselburgh Athletic win 32.6%. The pick is East Stirlingshire win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.7%. Both teams to score: 61.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.