Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury
Eastleigh
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Shrewsbury
Match result probability Model pick: Eastleigh win
Eastleigh winPick
39.1%
Draw
23.5%
Shrewsbury win
37.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.4%
No43.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%
How much we know
Eastleigh history81 matches
Shrewsbury history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Eastleigh
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Eastleigh are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,429 against 1,417. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Eastleigh score more
1.19 goals a game over 81 matches for Eastleigh, against 0.99 over 85 for Shrewsbury.
-
Defences are close
Eastleigh concede 1.67 a game, Shrewsbury 1.68.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
53% of Eastleigh matches, against 51% for Shrewsbury. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eastleigh
Shrewsbury
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1429.0
ELO
1416.9
81
ELO · Matches
85
1429.0
Current Team ELO
1416.9
1416.9
Current Opponent ELO
1429.0
12.10
Current ELO Difference
-12.10
0.52
Expected score
0.48
81
History Matches
85
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.05
46.79
Overperformance
46.06
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.40
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.90
0.90
Goals for per game
1.10
1.70
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.64
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.18
Overall performance9 signals 90
81
Matches
85
1.06
PPG
0.95
28.4%
Win rate
24.7%
21.0%
Draw rate
21.2%
50.6%
Loss rate
54.1%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.6%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals 100
41
Matches
44
1.24
PPG
0.73
34.1%
Win rate
15.9%
22.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
43.9%
Loss rate
59.1%
95.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.3%
26.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.6%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
41
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.19
Goals for per game
0.99
69.1%
Scoring rate
64.7%
59.3%
BTTS rate
51.8%
1.32
Goals for per game
0.91
80.5%
Scoring rate
63.6%
68.3%
BTTS rate
61.4%
81
History Matches
85
1.19
Goals Mean
0.99
0.98
Goals Std
0.96
69.1%
Scored 1+ rate
64.7%
39.5%
Scored 2+ rate
23.5%
9.9%
Scored 3+ rate
9.4%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.67
Goals against per game
1.68
88.9%
Conceding rate
77.6%
1.68
Goals against per game
1.93
87.8%
Conceding rate
88.6%
81
History Matches
85
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.08
Conceded Std
1.42
49.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.9%
21.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.1%
1.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
30.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
30.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
81
History Matches
85
0.94
Result entropy
0.92
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.72
6.26
Stability score
8.39
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
80
Eligible Matches
84
22
Lead Matches
9
68.2%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.81
27
Trailing Matches
29
11.1%
Non-loss rate
20.7%
7.4%
Trailing Win Rate
6.9%
Goal timing5 signals 50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.15
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.44
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
59
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.02
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.89
12
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.25
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.68
44.01
Portability Score
66.41
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
81
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO12.10
PPG0.11
GF0.20
GA-0.02
PPG0.52
PPG0.80
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate4.4%
Scored 2+ rate16.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate3.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.64
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-2.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.86
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate0.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.38
Portability PPG Range1.32
Portability Score-22.40
Rest days3.30
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.44
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO12.10
Current Opponent ELO-12.10
Current ELO Difference24.21
Expected score0.03
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Eastleigh
D
Barrow1–1Eastleigh31 Oct · away
Pick: Eastleigh 36% · missed L
Forest Green2–0Eastleigh28 Oct · away
Pick: Forest Green 45% · hit W
Eastleigh4–2Boston United24 Oct · home
Pick: Boston United 41% · missed W
Eastleigh3–2Brentwood Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Eastleigh 55% · hit D
Eastleigh1–1Aldershot Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Eastleigh 41% · missed Shrewsbury
L
Shrewsbury1–2Gillingham31 Oct · home
Pick: Gillingham 42% · hit W
Shrewsbury2–1Everton U2127 Oct · home
Pick: Shrewsbury 54% · hit D
Rotherham3–3Shrewsbury24 Oct · away
Pick: Rotherham 59% · missed W
Crawley Town2–3Shrewsbury20 Oct · away
Pick: Crawley Town 55% · missed W
Shrewsbury1–0Bristol Rovers17 Oct · home
Pick: Bristol Rovers 51% · missed About this match
Eastleigh and Shrewsbury meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Silverlake Stadium, Eastleigh. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Eastleigh win 39.1%, draw 23.5%, Shrewsbury win 37.3%. The pick is Eastleigh win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.8%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.