ScoreProb
J3 League Japan Round 16 2026

Ehime FC vs Biwako Shiga

Ehime FC Home · Elo 1,442
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Biwako Shiga Away · Elo 1,515
Ningineer Stadium, Matsuyama Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ehime FC win
Ehime FC winPick
59.7%
Draw
18.1%
Biwako Shiga win
22.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.7%
No46.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

Ehime FC history65 matches
Biwako Shiga history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 07:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ehime FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Biwako Shiga are rated 72 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,515 against 1,442. On rating alone Biwako Shiga would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Biwako Shiga score more

    1.12 goals a game over 65 matches for Ehime FC, against 1.33 over 52 for Biwako Shiga.

  • Defences are close

    Ehime FC concede 1.51 a game, Biwako Shiga 1.40.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Ehime FC matches, against 50% for Biwako Shiga. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ehime FC
Biwako Shiga
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1442.3
ELO
1514.7
65
ELO · Matches
52
1442.3
Current Team ELO
1514.7
1514.7
Current Opponent ELO
1442.3
-72.45
Current ELO Difference
72.45
0.40
Expected score
0.60
65
History Matches
52
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
47.12
Overperformance
50.90
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.50
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
52
0.95
PPG
1.60
23.1%
Win rate
46.2%
26.2%
Draw rate
21.2%
50.8%
Loss rate
32.7%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
36.5%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
26
0.85
PPG
1.54
23.5%
Win rate
42.3%
14.7%
Draw rate
26.9%
61.8%
Loss rate
30.8%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
34
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.12
Goals for per game
1.33
64.6%
Scoring rate
76.9%
47.7%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.38
55.9%
Scoring rate
73.1%
41.2%
BTTS rate
53.8%
3.33
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
65
History Matches
52
1.12
Goals Mean
1.33
1.20
Goals Std
1.05
64.6%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
29.2%
Scored 2+ rate
36.5%
10.8%
Scored 3+ rate
17.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.51
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
71.2%
1.53
Goals against per game
1.42
82.4%
Conceding rate
73.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
52
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.19
Conceded Std
1.13
43.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.1%
18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.2%
1.53
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
44.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
44.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
52
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.47
5.94
Stability score
4.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
52
18
Lead Matches
15
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.91
22
Trailing Matches
15
18.2%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
36
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.87
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.72
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.75
Portability PPG Range
0.95
41.05
Portability Score
54.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-72.45
PPG-0.64
GF-0.20
GA0.10
PPG0.33
PPG-0.69
PPG0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate12.3%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate17.2%
History Matches13
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches13
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score1.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.37
Lead Points Retention-0.28
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.80
Portability Score-13.10
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.16
Current Team ELO-72.45
Current Opponent ELO72.45
Current ELO Difference-144.9
Expected score-0.21
History Matches13
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ehime FC

L
Kochi United4–0Ehime FC3 Nov · away
Pick: Ehime FC 51% · missed
L
Tochigi SC2–0Ehime FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Tochigi SC 40% · hit
L
Ehime FC2–4Fukushima United25 Oct · home
Pick: Ehime FC 57% · missed
W
Ehime FC2–1Renofa Yamaguchi21 Oct · home
Pick: Ehime FC 55% · hit
L
Kagoshima United4–2Ehime FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Kagoshima United 40% · hit

Biwako Shiga

W
Kitakyushu0–1Biwako Shiga3 Nov · away
Pick: Kitakyushu 50% · missed
L
Parceiro Nagano3–1Biwako Shiga31 Oct · away
Pick: Parceiro Nagano 44% · hit
L
Biwako Shiga1–5Kanazawa25 Oct · home
Pick: Biwako Shiga 40% · missed
L
Tochigi SC1–0Biwako Shiga21 Oct · away
Pick: Tochigi SC 53% · hit
L
Biwako Shiga0–2Sagamihara18 Oct · home
Pick: Sagamihara 47% · hit

About this match

Ehime FC and Biwako Shiga meet in J3 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 07:00 UTC. The match is played at Ningineer Stadium, Matsuyama. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ehime FC win 59.7%, draw 18.1%, Biwako Shiga win 22.2%. The pick is Ehime FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.