ScoreProb
J3 League Japan Round 16 2026

Nara Club vs Kochi United

Nara Club Home · Elo 1,448
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kochi United Away · Elo 1,428
Konoike Athletic Stadium, Nara Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nara Club win
Nara Club winPick
49.2%
Draw
24.9%
Kochi United win
25.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

How much we know

Nara Club history65 matches
Kochi United history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Nara Club are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,448 against 1,428. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Nara Club score more

    1.34 goals a game over 65 matches for Nara Club, against 1.09 over 65 for Kochi United.

  • Defences are close

    Nara Club concede 1.51 a game, Kochi United 1.58.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Nara Club matches, against 54% for Kochi United. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nara Club
Kochi United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1448.2
ELO
1427.7
65
ELO · Matches
65
1448.2
Current Team ELO
1427.7
1427.7
Current Opponent ELO
1448.2
20.52
Current ELO Difference
-20.52
0.53
Expected score
0.47
65
History Matches
65
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.06
47.28
Overperformance
45.74
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
2.40
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
65
1.28
PPG
1.11
33.8%
Win rate
29.2%
26.2%
Draw rate
23.1%
40.0%
Loss rate
47.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
52.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
33
1.74
PPG
0.85
47.1%
Win rate
21.2%
32.4%
Draw rate
21.2%
20.6%
Loss rate
57.6%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
34
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.09
73.8%
Scoring rate
58.5%
60.0%
BTTS rate
44.6%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.06
79.4%
Scoring rate
54.5%
61.8%
BTTS rate
42.4%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
65
History Matches
65
1.34
Goals Mean
1.09
1.19
Goals Std
1.16
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
58.5%
38.5%
Scored 2+ rate
35.4%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
10.8%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.51
Goals against per game
1.58
81.5%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.97
73.5%
Conceding rate
81.8%
2.67
Goals against per game
2.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
65
History Matches
65
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.25
Conceded Std
1.40
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.6%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.5%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.5%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.5%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
65
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.92
1.33
Stability score
4.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
65
16
Lead Matches
13
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.79
21
Trailing Matches
25
33.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.60
40
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.56
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.47
Portability PPG Range
0.45
71.67
Portability Score
72.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO20.52
PPG0.17
GF0.25
GA-0.08
PPG-0.33
PPG0.89
PPG0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate15.4%
Scored 2+ rate3.1%
Scored 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.59
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-3.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.24
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate4.3%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate13.3%
Trailing Win Rate1.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.02
Portability Score-0.73
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.20
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.12
Current Team ELO20.52
Current Opponent ELO-20.52
Current ELO Difference41.03
Expected score0.06
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nara Club

W
Nara Club3–0Thespakusatsu Gunma3 Nov · home
Pick: Nara Club 50% · hit
W
Kamatamare Sanuki0–2Nara Club31 Oct · away
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 46% · missed
L
Nara Club1–3FC Ryukyu24 Oct · home
Pick: Nara Club 39% · missed
L
Osaka2–0Nara Club21 Oct · away
Pick: Osaka 58% · hit
W
Kanazawa0–1Nara Club17 Oct · away
Pick: Kanazawa 52% · missed

Kochi United

W
Kochi United4–0Ehime FC3 Nov · home
Pick: Ehime FC 51% · missed
L
Kochi United1–3Sagamihara31 Oct · home
Pick: Sagamihara 56% · hit
D
Gainare Tottori0–0Kochi United25 Oct · away
Pick: Gainare Tottori 49% · missed
L
Kagoshima United3–1Kochi United21 Oct · away
Pick: Kagoshima United 65% · hit
L
Renofa Yamaguchi2–0Kochi United18 Oct · away
Pick: Renofa Yamaguchi 54% · hit

About this match

Nara Club and Kochi United meet in J3 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Konoike Athletic Stadium, Nara. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Nara Club win 49.2%, draw 24.9%, Kochi United win 25.9%. The pick is Nara Club win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.