ScoreProb
J3 League Japan Round 16 2026

Fukushima United vs FC Ryukyu

Fukushima United Home · Elo 1,447
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Ryukyu Away · Elo 1,429
Toho, Fukushima Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fukushima United win
Fukushima United winPick
45.0%
Draw
24.4%
FC Ryukyu win
30.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.7%
No37.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%

How much we know

Fukushima United history66 matches
FC Ryukyu history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Fukushima United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,447 against 1,429. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Fukushima United score far more

    1.80 goals a game over 66 matches for Fukushima United, against 1.02 over 63 for FC Ryukyu.

  • FC Ryukyu concede fewer

    Fukushima United concede 1.94 a game, FC Ryukyu 1.52.

  • Fukushima United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Fukushima United matches, against 41% for FC Ryukyu. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fukushima United
FC Ryukyu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1446.7
ELO
1428.9
66
ELO · Matches
63
1446.7
Current Team ELO
1428.9
1428.9
Current Opponent ELO
1446.7
17.79
Current ELO Difference
-17.79
0.53
Expected score
0.47
66
History Matches
63
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.06
47.11
Overperformance
45.79
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
2.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
2.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.99
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
63
1.26
PPG
0.97
34.8%
Win rate
22.2%
21.2%
Draw rate
30.2%
43.9%
Loss rate
47.6%
80.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
71.2%
Over 2.5 rate
41.3%
48.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
32
1.24
PPG
0.78
32.4%
Win rate
15.6%
26.5%
Draw rate
31.3%
41.2%
Loss rate
53.1%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
76.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
55.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
34
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.02
81.8%
Scoring rate
63.5%
68.2%
BTTS rate
52.4%
2.21
Goals for per game
1.00
85.3%
Scoring rate
65.6%
73.5%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
66
History Matches
63
1.80
Goals Mean
1.02
1.59
Goals Std
1.02
81.8%
Scored 1+ rate
63.5%
51.5%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
25.8%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
2.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.94
Goals against per game
1.52
84.8%
Conceding rate
82.5%
1.94
Goals against per game
1.66
88.2%
Conceding rate
87.5%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
63
1.94
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.49
Conceded Std
1.11
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
31.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.0%
1.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
36.5%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
36.5%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
63
0.96
Result entropy
0.95
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.28
3.73
Stability score
4.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
61
22
Lead Matches
16
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
56.3%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.69
18
Trailing Matches
16
27.8%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
1.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
38
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.82
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.10
1.47
Portability PPG Range
0.20
44.87
Portability Score
83.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO17.79
PPG0.29
GF0.79
GA0.42
PPG-0.50
PPG0.45
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.79
Goals Std0.57
Scored 1+ rate18.3%
Scored 2+ rate22.9%
Scored 3+ rate19.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.42
Conceded Std0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate12.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.93
Stability score-0.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.59
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate16.5%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate15.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.51
Portability PPG Range1.27
Portability Score-38.28
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Current Team ELO17.79
Current Opponent ELO-17.79
Current ELO Difference35.58
Expected score0.05
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fukushima United

D
Tochigi SC0–0Fukushima United3 Nov · away
Pick: Tochigi SC 59% · missed
L
Fukushima United1–3Matsumoto Yamaga31 Oct · home
Pick: Fukushima United 37% · missed
W
Ehime FC2–4Fukushima United25 Oct · away
Pick: Ehime FC 57% · missed
W
Fukushima United2–1Kitakyushu21 Oct · home
Pick: Fukushima United 39% · hit
L
FC Gifu1–0Fukushima United17 Oct · away
Pick: FC Gifu 59% · hit

FC Ryukyu

L
FC Ryukyu2–3FC Gifu3 Nov · home
Pick: FC Gifu 57% · hit
W
FC Ryukyu5–2Gainare Tottori31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Ryukyu 46% · hit
W
Nara Club1–3FC Ryukyu24 Oct · away
Pick: Nara Club 39% · missed
W
Parceiro Nagano0–1FC Ryukyu21 Oct · away
Pick: Parceiro Nagano 48% · missed
W
FC Ryukyu1–0Tochigi SC17 Oct · home
Pick: Tochigi SC 44% · missed

About this match

Fukushima United and FC Ryukyu meet in J3 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Toho, Fukushima. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fukushima United win 45.0%, draw 24.4%, FC Ryukyu win 30.6%. The pick is Fukushima United win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.4%. Both teams to score: 62.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.