Eibar III vs Derio
Match result probability Model pick: Eibar III win
Eibar III winPick
37.2%
Draw
26.0%
Derio win
36.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.1%
No46.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%
How much we know
Eibar III history50 matches
Derio history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Eibar III
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.2%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Eibar III are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Derio are rated 63 Elo points higher
Elo 1,518 against 1,455. On rating alone Derio would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.24 goals a game over 50 matches for Eibar III, against 1.38 over 53 for Derio.
-
Derio concede fewer
Eibar III concede 1.58 a game, Derio 1.23.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
52% of Eibar III matches, against 51% for Derio. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Derio@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1455.4
ELO
1518.0
50
ELO · Matches
53
1455.4
Current Team ELO
1518.0
1518.0
Current Opponent ELO
1455.4
-62.51
Current ELO Difference
62.51
0.41
Expected score
0.59
50
History Matches
53
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
47.23
Overperformance
51.35
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
2.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
0.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals 90
50
Matches
53
1.06
PPG
1.45
26.0%
Win rate
39.6%
28.0%
Draw rate
26.4%
46.0%
Loss rate
34.0%
74.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.5%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.9%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.5%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
26
1.42
PPG
1.35
38.5%
Win rate
34.6%
26.9%
Draw rate
30.8%
34.6%
Loss rate
34.6%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
26
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.24
Goals for per game
1.38
62.0%
Scoring rate
69.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.9%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.27
65.4%
Scoring rate
65.4%
46.2%
BTTS rate
53.8%
50
History Matches
53
1.24
Goals Mean
1.38
1.35
Goals Std
1.19
62.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.8%
32.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.3%
18.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.0%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.58
Goals against per game
1.23
80.0%
Conceding rate
73.6%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.42
69.2%
Conceding rate
76.9%
50
History Matches
53
1.58
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.42
Conceded Std
1.08
38.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
38.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
38.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
50
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.66
3.16
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
48
Eligible Matches
52
12
Lead Matches
12
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.78
15
Trailing Matches
17
13.3%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
91.94
Rest days
121.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
23
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.06
Portability PPG Range
0.30
94.12
Portability Score
76.87
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
50
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-62.51
PPG-0.39
GF-0.14
GA0.35
PPG0.08
PPG1.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score1.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.77
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.24
Portability Score17.25
Rest days-29.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-62.51
Current Opponent ELO62.51
Current ELO Difference-125.0
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Eibar III
L
Durango2–0Eibar III7 Nov · away
Pick: Durango 36% · hit D
Eibar III0–0Beasain1 Nov · home
Pick: Beasain 45% · missed W
Aretxabaleta0–2Eibar III25 Oct · away
Pick: Eibar III 39% · hit W
Eibar III2–1Santurtzi18 Oct · home
Pick: Eibar III 39% · hit L
Eibar III2–3Real Sociedad III4 Oct · home
Pick: Eibar III 46% · missed Derio
L
Derio2–3R. Union B7 Nov · home
Pick: Derio 69% · missed W
Pasaia KE2–3Derio31 Oct · away
Pick: Derio 45% · hit W
Derio2–1Lagun Onak24 Oct · home
Pick: Derio 51% · hit W
Derio2–0Beasain4 Oct · home
Pick: Beasain 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Eibar III and Derio meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Eibar III win 37.2%, draw 26.0%, Derio win 36.8%. The pick is Eibar III win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.5%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.