ScoreProb
Oberliga - Nordost-Süd Germany NOFV- Sud - 11 2026

Eilenburg vs Union Sandersdorf

Eilenburg Home · Elo 1,436
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Union Sandersdorf Away · Elo 1,498
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Eilenburg win
Eilenburg winPick
42.1%
Draw
23.3%
Union Sandersdorf win
34.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.6%
No43.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.2%
Under 2.539.8%

How much we know

Eilenburg history58 matches
Union Sandersdorf history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Eilenburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Union Sandersdorf are rated 62 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,498 against 1,436. On rating alone Union Sandersdorf would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.26 goals a game over 58 matches for Eilenburg, against 1.31 over 48 for Union Sandersdorf.

  • Union Sandersdorf concede fewer

    Eilenburg concede 1.91 a game, Union Sandersdorf 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Eilenburg matches, against 52% for Union Sandersdorf. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eilenburg
Union Sandersdorf@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1436.0
ELO
1497.7
58
ELO · Matches
48
1436.0
Current Team ELO
1497.7
1497.7
Current Opponent ELO
1436.0
-61.69
Current ELO Difference
61.69
0.41
Expected score
0.59
58
History Matches
48
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
45.83
Overperformance
49.89
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
3.00
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
2.80
Goals against per game
0.70
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
48
0.95
PPG
1.29
20.7%
Win rate
33.3%
32.8%
Draw rate
29.2%
46.6%
Loss rate
37.5%
84.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
24
1.18
PPG
1.33
28.6%
Win rate
37.5%
32.1%
Draw rate
20.8%
39.3%
Loss rate
41.7%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
28
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.31
65.5%
Scoring rate
72.9%
55.2%
BTTS rate
58.3%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.13
53.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
42.9%
BTTS rate
54.2%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
48
1.26
Goals Mean
1.31
1.28
Goals Std
1.18
65.5%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
13.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.91
Goals against per game
1.33
84.5%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.64
Goals against per game
1.21
82.1%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
48
1.91
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.51
Conceded Std
1.05
55.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
27.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
46.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
15.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
46.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
15.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
48
0.95
Result entropy
1.00
2.10
Goal Difference Std
1.60
4.65
Stability score
0.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
48
11
Lead Matches
12
54.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.75
24
Trailing Matches
14
25.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.98
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.25
Rest days
84.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.82
Portability PPG Range
0.16
59.76
Portability Score
86.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-61.69
PPG-0.34
GF-0.05
GA0.58
PPG0.50
PPG-0.15
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate13.1%
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.56
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.58
Conceded Std0.46
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate17.7%
Conceded 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.02
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.50
Stability score4.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.53
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate1.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-26.66
Rest days-1.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Current Team ELO-61.69
Current Opponent ELO61.69
Current ELO Difference-123.4
Expected score-0.18
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eilenburg

L
Weissenfels2–1Eilenburg31 Oct · away
Pick: Weissenfels 53% · hit
L
Eilenburg0–1Krieschow24 Oct · home
Pick: Eilenburg 63% · missed
L
Empor Glauchau3–1Eilenburg18 Oct · away
Pick: Eilenburg 51% · missed
W
SC Freital1–3Eilenburg29 Aug · away
Pick: SC Freital 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Union Sandersdorf

D
Union Sandersdorf1–1SC Freital31 Oct · home
Pick: Union Sandersdorf 40% · missed
L
Dresden II5–2Union Sandersdorf25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
W
Union Sandersdorf3–1Budissa Bautzen18 Oct · home
Pick: Union Sandersdorf 65% · hit
W
FC Frankfurt0–8Union Sandersdorf29 Aug · away
Pick: Union Sandersdorf 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Eilenburg and Union Sandersdorf meet in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Eilenburg win 42.1%, draw 23.3%, Union Sandersdorf win 34.6%. The pick is Eilenburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.2%. Both teams to score: 56.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.