ScoreProb
League Two Scotland Round 13 2026

Elgin City vs Dumbarton

Elgin City Home · Elo 1,486
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dumbarton Away · Elo 1,393
Borough Briggs, Elgin Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Elgin City win
Elgin City winPick
66.2%
Draw
15.0%
Dumbarton win
18.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%

How much we know

Elgin City history84 matches
Dumbarton history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Elgin City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Elgin City are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,486 against 1,393. On rating alone Elgin City would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Elgin City score more

    1.58 goals a game over 84 matches for Elgin City, against 1.30 over 76 for Dumbarton.

  • Elgin City concede fewer

    Elgin City concede 1.65 a game, Dumbarton 1.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Elgin City matches, against 62% for Dumbarton. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Elgin City
Dumbarton@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.1
ELO
1393.1
84
ELO · Matches
76
1486.1
Current Team ELO
1393.1
1393.1
Current Opponent ELO
1486.1
93.03
Current ELO Difference
-93.03
0.63
Expected score
0.37
84
History Matches
76
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.06
49.93
Overperformance
45.32
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.70
1.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.90
Goals against per game
2.60
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.56
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
76
1.31
PPG
1.05
36.9%
Win rate
27.6%
20.2%
Draw rate
22.4%
42.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
86.9%
Over 1.5 rate
86.8%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
39.3%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
34
1.40
PPG
0.79
42.2%
Win rate
17.6%
13.3%
Draw rate
26.5%
44.4%
Loss rate
55.9%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
62.2%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
45
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.30
78.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
56.0%
BTTS rate
60.5%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.35
84.4%
Scoring rate
73.5%
55.6%
BTTS rate
67.6%
3.25
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
84
History Matches
76
1.58
Goals Mean
1.30
1.27
Goals Std
1.16
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
34.2%
21.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
1.95
76.2%
Conceding rate
82.9%
1.60
Goals against per game
2.18
71.1%
Conceding rate
94.1%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
84
History Matches
76
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.95
1.54
Conceded Std
1.54
44.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
59.2%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.9%
1.60
Venue Conceded Mean
2.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
76
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
2.30
Goal Difference Std
2.06
4.03
Stability score
5.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
76
29
Lead Matches
15
69.0%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.91
29
Trailing Matches
38
17.2%
Non-loss rate
28.9%
6.9%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
77
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
6
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
0.75
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
11
Competition Season Count
9
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.81
Portability PPG Std
0.34
2.33
Portability PPG Range
0.82
38.25
Portability Score
59.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO93.03
PPG0.26
GF0.28
GA-0.29
PPG1.25
PPG0.61
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate23.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate13.4%
Scored 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches8
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-1.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.90
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate1.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.47
Portability PPG Range1.51
Portability Score-21.49
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.10
Current Team ELO93.03
Current Opponent ELO-93.03
Current ELO Difference186.1
Expected score0.26
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Elgin City

L
Airdrie United5–0Elgin City3 Nov · away
Pick: Elgin City 39% · missed
W
Kelty Hearts0–1Elgin City31 Oct · away
Pick: Elgin City 51% · hit
W
Stirling University1–2Elgin City24 Oct · away
Pick: Elgin City 54% · hit
D
Elgin City0–0Edinburgh City17 Oct · home
Pick: Elgin City 54% · missed
L
Elgin City0–1Aberdeen U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Elgin City 51% · missed

Dumbarton

L
Edinburgh City2–1Dumbarton31 Oct · away
Pick: Edinburgh City 56% · hit
W
Dumbarton1–0Keith24 Oct · home
Pick: Dumbarton 56% · hit
D
Dumbarton1–1Stirling Albion17 Oct · home
Pick: Stirling Albion 47% · missed
L
Clydebank4–0Dumbarton13 Oct · away
Pick: Clydebank 64% · hit
L
Annan Athletic2–0Dumbarton29 Aug · away
Pick: Annan Athletic 53% · hit

About this match

Elgin City and Dumbarton meet in League Two on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Borough Briggs, Elgin. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Elgin City win 66.2%, draw 15.0%, Dumbarton win 18.8%. The pick is Elgin City win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.