ScoreProb
League Two Scotland Round 13 2026

Stranraer vs Stirling Albion

Stranraer Home · Elo 1,469
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stirling Albion Away · Elo 1,431
Stair Park, Stranraer Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stranraer win
Stranraer winPick
47.6%
Draw
25.3%
Stirling Albion win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%

How much we know

Stranraer history82 matches
Stirling Albion history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Stranraer are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stranraer are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,469 against 1,431. On rating alone Stranraer would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.28 goals a game over 82 matches for Stranraer, against 1.31 over 77 for Stirling Albion.

  • Stranraer concede fewer

    Stranraer concede 1.24 a game, Stirling Albion 1.75.

  • Stirling Albion games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Stranraer matches, against 61% for Stirling Albion. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stranraer
Stirling Albion@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1468.9
ELO
1431.1
82
ELO · Matches
77
1468.9
Current Team ELO
1431.1
1431.1
Current Opponent ELO
1468.9
37.81
Current ELO Difference
-37.81
0.55
Expected score
0.45
82
History Matches
77
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.39
Overperformance
46.89
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
77
1.28
PPG
1.09
34.1%
Win rate
28.6%
25.6%
Draw rate
23.4%
40.2%
Loss rate
48.1%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
51.2%
Over 2.5 rate
61.0%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
39.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
37
1.46
PPG
0.95
39.1%
Win rate
24.3%
28.3%
Draw rate
21.6%
32.6%
Loss rate
54.1%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
41.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.5%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
46
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.31
72.0%
Scoring rate
70.1%
52.4%
BTTS rate
59.7%
1.37
Goals for per game
1.30
76.1%
Scoring rate
64.9%
52.2%
BTTS rate
59.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
82
History Matches
77
1.28
Goals Mean
1.31
1.15
Goals Std
1.11
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.1%
34.1%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
1.75
73.2%
Conceding rate
85.7%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.84
69.6%
Conceding rate
89.2%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
82
History Matches
77
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.04
Conceded Std
1.18
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.2%
13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.84
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.9%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.9%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
77
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.67
1.51
Stability score
4.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
77
25
Lead Matches
16
72.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.83
20
Trailing Matches
36
30.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.99
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
73
Normal Rest History Matches
69
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
8
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
10
Competition Season Count
10
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.75
Portability PPG Range
1.40
50.21
Portability Score
52.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO37.81
PPG0.19
GF-0.03
GA-0.51
PPG0.00
PPG0.51
PPG0.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate19.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate1.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.88
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches5
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-2.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.16
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-16
Non-loss rate7.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.35
Portability Score-2.18
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.07
Current Team ELO37.81
Current Opponent ELO-37.81
Current ELO Difference75.62
Expected score0.11
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stranraer

D
Stranraer0–0Clyde31 Oct · home
Pick: Clyde 40% · missed
W
Stranraer3–1Tayport24 Oct · home
Pick: Stranraer 66% · hit
W
Spartans0–2Stranraer17 Oct · away
Pick: Spartans 46% · missed
D
Stranraer3–3Kilmarnock II13 Oct · home
Pick: Stranraer 73% · missed
L
Stranraer3–4Celtic II1 Sep · home
Pick: Stranraer 51% · missed

Stirling Albion

L
East Kilbride7–3Stirling Albion3 Nov · away
Pick: East Kilbride 52% · hit
W
Stirling Albion5–2Forfar Athletic31 Oct · home
Pick: Forfar Athletic 41% · missed
L
Renfrew2–1Stirling Albion24 Oct · away
Pick: Stirling Albion 56% · missed
D
Dumbarton1–1Stirling Albion17 Oct · away
Pick: Stirling Albion 47% · missed
D
Stirling Albion2–2Hibernian U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Stirling Albion 71% · missed

About this match

Stranraer and Stirling Albion meet in League Two on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Stair Park, Stranraer. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Stranraer win 47.6%, draw 25.3%, Stirling Albion win 27.2%. The pick is Stranraer win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.6%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.