ScoreProb
League Two Scotland Round 13 2026

Annan Athletic vs Kelty Hearts

Annan Athletic Home · Elo 1,413
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kelty Hearts Away · Elo 1,414
Galabank, Annan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kelty Hearts win
Annan Athletic win
38.4%
Draw
21.5%
Kelty Hearts winPick
40.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.3%
No38.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.9%
Under 2.539.1%

How much we know

Annan Athletic history82 matches
Kelty Hearts history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kelty Hearts are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,413 against 1,414. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Annan Athletic score more

    1.46 goals a game over 82 matches for Annan Athletic, against 1.04 over 78 for Kelty Hearts.

  • Kelty Hearts concede fewer

    Annan Athletic concede 2.04 a game, Kelty Hearts 1.79.

  • Annan Athletic games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Annan Athletic matches, against 54% for Kelty Hearts. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Annan Athletic
Kelty Hearts@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1412.9
ELO
1414.3
82
ELO · Matches
78
1412.9
Current Team ELO
1414.3
1414.3
Current Opponent ELO
1412.9
-1.47
Current ELO Difference
1.47
0.50
Expected score
0.50
82
History Matches
78
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
45.90
Overperformance
46.46
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.30
0.90
Goals for per game
1.70
2.50
Goals against per game
2.30
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
78
1.07
PPG
0.94
29.3%
Win rate
23.1%
19.5%
Draw rate
24.4%
51.2%
Loss rate
52.6%
81.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
65.9%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
48.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
36
1.32
PPG
0.89
34.1%
Win rate
22.2%
29.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
36.6%
Loss rate
55.6%
92.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.1%
68.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
53.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
41
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.46
Goals for per game
1.04
72.0%
Scoring rate
61.5%
61.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.85
Goals for per game
1.14
85.4%
Scoring rate
72.2%
73.2%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
82
History Matches
78
1.46
Goals Mean
1.04
1.35
Goals Std
1.06
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
61.5%
40.2%
Scored 2+ rate
29.5%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.3%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.04
Goals against per game
1.79
85.4%
Conceding rate
82.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.83
85.4%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.75
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
82
History Matches
78
2.04
Conceded Mean
1.79
1.63
Conceded Std
1.39
56.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.6%
30.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.2%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
78
0.93
Result entropy
0.93
2.24
Goal Difference Std
1.86
7.05
Stability score
7.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
78
19
Lead Matches
20
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.55
35
Trailing Matches
30
17.1%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
11.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
1.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
72
Normal Rest History Matches
70
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
8
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
1.50
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
9
Competition Season Count
9
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.45
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.50
43.49
Portability Score
52.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-1.47
PPG0.14
GF0.42
GA0.24
PPG-0.75
PPG0.43
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate10.4%
Scored 2+ rate10.8%
Scored 3+ rate11.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate3.5%
Conceded 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score-0.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate18.4%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate11.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.50
Portability Score-9.30
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.57
Current Team ELO-1.47
Current Opponent ELO1.47
Current ELO Difference-2.93
Expected score0.00
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Annan Athletic

L
Annan Athletic0–2Ayr Utd3 Nov · home
Pick: Ayr Utd 46% · hit
L
Spartans3–2Annan Athletic31 Oct · away
Pick: Spartans 52% · hit
L
Clyde4–1Annan Athletic17 Oct · away
Pick: Clyde 51% · hit
D
Annan Athletic0–0Alloa Athletic13 Oct · home
Pick: Alloa Athletic 58% · missed
W
Annan Athletic2–0Dumbarton29 Aug · home
Pick: Annan Athletic 53% · hit

Kelty Hearts

W
Morton0–1Kelty Hearts3 Nov · away
Pick: Kelty Hearts 41% · hit
L
Kelty Hearts0–1Elgin City31 Oct · home
Pick: Elgin City 51% · hit
L
Edinburgh City4–1Kelty Hearts24 Oct · away
Pick: Edinburgh City 43% · hit
W
Kelty Hearts2–1Forfar Athletic17 Oct · home
Pick: Forfar Athletic 42% · missed
L
East Kilbride2–1Kelty Hearts13 Oct · away
Pick: East Kilbride 62% · hit

About this match

Annan Athletic and Kelty Hearts meet in League Two on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Galabank, Annan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Annan Athletic win 38.4%, draw 21.5%, Kelty Hearts win 40.1%. The pick is Kelty Hearts win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.9%. Both teams to score: 61.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.