ScoreProb
League Two Scotland Round 13 2026

Forfar Athletic vs Edinburgh City

Forfar Athletic Home · Elo 1,460
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Edinburgh City Away · Elo 1,488
Station Park, Forfar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Forfar Athletic win
Forfar Athletic winPick
51.1%
Draw
25.3%
Edinburgh City win
23.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%

How much we know

Forfar Athletic history82 matches
Edinburgh City history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Forfar Athletic are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Edinburgh City are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,488 against 1,460. On rating alone Edinburgh City would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Edinburgh City score more

    1.17 goals a game over 82 matches for Forfar Athletic, against 1.33 over 80 for Edinburgh City.

  • Forfar Athletic concede fewer

    Forfar Athletic concede 1.46 a game, Edinburgh City 1.81.

  • Edinburgh City games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Forfar Athletic matches, against 61% for Edinburgh City. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Forfar Athletic
Edinburgh City@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1459.7
ELO
1487.9
82
ELO · Matches
80
1459.7
Current Team ELO
1487.9
1487.9
Current Opponent ELO
1459.7
-28.21
Current ELO Difference
28.21
0.46
Expected score
0.54
82
History Matches
80
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.35
Overperformance
49.41
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.60
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.90
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.50
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
2.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.91
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
3.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.77
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
80
1.29
PPG
1.36
34.1%
Win rate
38.8%
26.8%
Draw rate
20.0%
39.0%
Loss rate
41.3%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
29.3%
Over 3.5 rate
38.8%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
40
1.42
PPG
1.25
39.5%
Win rate
35.0%
23.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
37.2%
Loss rate
45.0%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
30.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
43
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.17
Goals for per game
1.33
67.1%
Scoring rate
68.8%
47.6%
BTTS rate
48.8%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.05
67.4%
Scoring rate
62.5%
44.2%
BTTS rate
45.0%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
82
History Matches
80
1.17
Goals Mean
1.33
1.18
Goals Std
1.34
67.1%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
29.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.8%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
16.3%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.81
73.2%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.37
Goals against per game
1.93
69.8%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
82
History Matches
80
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.81
1.40
Conceded Std
1.57
40.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.8%
20.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.0%
1.37
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
32.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
32.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
80
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.32
1.05
Stability score
4.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
81
Eligible Matches
79
32
Lead Matches
26
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.81
21
Trailing Matches
27
19.0%
Non-loss rate
18.5%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
3.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
81
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.01
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
75
Normal Rest History Matches
69
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
6
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.95
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
11
Competition Season Count
10
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.61
54.07
Portability Score
46.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-28.21
PPG-0.07
GF-0.15
GA-0.35
PPG0.00
PPG0.17
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score-2.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate0.5%
Trailing Win Rate5.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score7.57
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.62
Current Team ELO-28.21
Current Opponent ELO28.21
Current ELO Difference-56.42
Expected score-0.08
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Forfar Athletic

L
Stirling Albion5–2Forfar Athletic31 Oct · away
Pick: Forfar Athletic 41% · missed
L
Bo'ness United2–1Forfar Athletic24 Oct · away
Pick: Forfar Athletic 50% · missed
L
Kelty Hearts2–1Forfar Athletic17 Oct · away
Pick: Forfar Athletic 42% · missed
L
Ross County2–1Forfar Athletic13 Oct · away
Pick: Ross County 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Edinburgh City

L
Edinburgh City0–3Partick3 Nov · home
Pick: Partick 48% · hit
W
Edinburgh City2–1Dumbarton31 Oct · home
Pick: Edinburgh City 56% · hit
W
Edinburgh City4–1Kelty Hearts24 Oct · home
Pick: Edinburgh City 43% · hit
D
Elgin City0–0Edinburgh City17 Oct · away
Pick: Elgin City 54% · missed
L
Edinburgh City0–5St. Mirren U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Edinburgh City 50% · missed

About this match

Forfar Athletic and Edinburgh City meet in League Two on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Station Park, Forfar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Forfar Athletic win 51.1%, draw 25.3%, Edinburgh City win 23.5%. The pick is Forfar Athletic win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.4%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.