ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Spain Group 17 - 10 2026

Épila vs Real Zaragoza II

Épila Home · Elo 1,594
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Zaragoza II Away · Elo 1,432
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Épila win
Épila winPick
47.9%
Draw
30.7%
Real Zaragoza II win
21.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.5%
No53.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.7%
Under 2.554.3%

How much we know

Épila history50 matches
Real Zaragoza II history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Épila are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Épila are rated 161 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,594 against 1,432. On rating alone Épila would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.08 goals a game over 50 matches for Épila, against 1.04 over 50 for Real Zaragoza II.

  • Épila concede fewer

    Épila concede 0.66 a game, Real Zaragoza II 1.58.

  • Real Zaragoza II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    26% of Épila matches, against 50% for Real Zaragoza II. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Épila
Real Zaragoza II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1593.6
ELO
1432.3
50
ELO · Matches
50
1593.6
Current Team ELO
1432.3
1432.3
Current Opponent ELO
1593.6
161.3
Current ELO Difference
-161.3
0.72
Expected score
0.28
50
History Matches
50
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.06
56.22
Overperformance
45.53
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
0.30
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
50
1.80
PPG
1.02
50.0%
Win rate
28.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
18.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
54.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
26.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
10.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
1.92
PPG
0.67
54.2%
Win rate
12.5%
29.2%
Draw rate
29.2%
16.7%
Loss rate
58.3%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
20.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
8.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.08
Goals for per game
1.04
72.0%
Scoring rate
62.0%
30.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.83
70.8%
Scoring rate
54.2%
20.8%
BTTS rate
45.8%
50
History Matches
50
1.08
Goals Mean
1.04
0.89
Goals Std
1.02
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.0%
28.0%
Scored 2+ rate
30.0%
8.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.66
Goals against per game
1.58
42.0%
Conceding rate
82.0%
0.46
Goals against per game
1.83
33.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
50
History Matches
50
0.66
Conceded Mean
1.58
0.97
Conceded Std
1.27
14.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.0%
8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.0%
0.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
58.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
58.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
58.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
50
0.94
Result entropy
0.91
1.34
Goal Difference Std
1.70
6.28
Stability score
9.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
50
20
Lead Matches
13
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.85
9
Trailing Matches
19
22.2%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
168.0
Rest days
189.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.05
Portability PPG Std
0.35
0.10
Portability PPG Range
0.71
91.30
Portability Score
58.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO161.3
PPG0.78
GF0.04
GA-0.92
PPG1.25
PPG0.80
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate40.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate50.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate10.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.92
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.32
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-1.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.55
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-2.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate8.1%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate11.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.58
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.31
Portability PPG Range-0.61
Portability Score32.82
Rest days-21.27
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.68
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.96
Current Team ELO161.3
Current Opponent ELO-161.3
Current ELO Difference322.6
Expected score0.43
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance10.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Épila

L
Huesca II2–0Épila1 Nov · away
Pick: Huesca II 41% · hit
D
Épila2–2Atlético Monzón24 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Monzón 40% · missed
L
Caspe3–2Épila4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Real Zaragoza II

D
Real Zaragoza II3–3Binéfar1 Nov · home
Pick: Binéfar 41% · missed
W
Real Zaragoza II4–0Almudévar24 Oct · home
Pick: Real Zaragoza II 38% · hit
L
Huesca II2–0Real Zaragoza II18 Oct · away
Pick: Huesca II 55% · hit
W
Fraga1–2Real Zaragoza II4 Oct · away
Pick: Fraga 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Épila and Real Zaragoza II meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Épila win 47.9%, draw 30.7%, Real Zaragoza II win 21.4%. The pick is Épila win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.7%. Both teams to score: 46.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.