Estanciano vs Frei Paulistano
What we said before kickoff Result: Frei Paulistano win
Estanciano win
35.1%
Draw
26.5%
Frei Paulistano winPick Result
38.4%
How our picks did
Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.
Match result
Our pickFrei Paulistano win · 38.4%
What happenedFrei Paulistano win · we gave it 38.4%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 56.9%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 51.9%
What happenedNo · 0–2
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Frei Paulistano win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
38%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.6
on average A pick at 38% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes51.9%
No48.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.9%
Under 2.543.1%
How much we know
Estanciano history0 matches
Frei Paulistano history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full time: 0–2One of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.5 Nov · 03:19 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,668 matches.
Why Frei Paulistano are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,500 against 1,521. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Frei Paulistano@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1521.0
0
ELO · Matches
7
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1521.0
1521.0
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-20.98
Current ELO Difference
20.98
0.47
Expected score
0.53
0
History Matches
7
—
Residual Mean
0.14
—
Overperformance
53.55
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
2.40
—
Goals for per game
3.20
—
Goals against per game
0.80
—
Win rate
80.0%
0
Matches
7
—
PPG
1.86
—
Goals for per game
2.71
—
Goals against per game
1.14
—
Win rate
57.1%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.71
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.83
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.14
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.99
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.87
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.32
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
7
—
PPG
1.86
—
Win rate
57.1%
—
Draw rate
14.3%
—
Loss rate
28.6%
—
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
—
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
—
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
4
—
PPG
1.75
—
Win rate
50.0%
—
Draw rate
25.0%
—
Loss rate
25.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
0
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
2.71
—
Scoring rate
71.4%
—
BTTS rate
42.9%
—
Goals for per game
2.50
—
Scoring rate
75.0%
—
BTTS rate
25.0%
0
History Matches
7
—
Goals Mean
2.71
—
Goals Std
1.83
—
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
—
Scored 2+ rate
71.4%
—
Scored 3+ rate
71.4%
—
Venue Goals Mean
2.50
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.14
—
Conceding rate
71.4%
—
Goals against per game
1.25
—
Conceding rate
50.0%
0
History Matches
7
—
Conceded Mean
1.14
—
Conceded Std
0.99
—
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
7
—
Result entropy
0.87
—
Goal Difference Std
2.32
—
Stability score
13.01
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Non-loss rateTrailing Win Rate
0
Eligible Matches
6
0
Lead Matches
3
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
0
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.83
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
368.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
5
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
0
Long Rest History Matches
1
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
1
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-20.98
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
History Matches-4
History Matches-7
History Matches-7
History Matches-7
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-3
Trailing Matches0
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest History Matches-1
Current Team ELO-20.98
Current Opponent ELO20.98
Current ELO Difference-41.96
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-7
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Estanciano
W
Estanciano1–0Maruinense1 Nov · home
Pick: Estanciano 50% · hit D
Independente Simão Dias1–1Estanciano29 Oct · away
Pick: Independente Simão Dias 51% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Frei Paulistano
W
Frei Paulistano5–0Barra SE1 Nov · home
Pick: Frei Paulistano 70% · hit L
Maruinense2–1Frei Paulistano29 Oct · away
Pick: Frei Paulistano 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Estanciano and Frei Paulistano finished 0–2 in Sergipano - 2 on Wednesday 4 November 2026. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Estanciano win 35.1%, draw 26.5%, Frei Paulistano win 38.4%. One of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.