ScoreProb
Premier League England Round 10 2026

Everton vs Coventry

Everton Home · Elo 1,548
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Coventry Away · Elo 1,637
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Everton win
Everton winPick
50.8%
Draw
22.6%
Coventry win
26.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.9%
No53.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

Everton history71 matches
Coventry history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Everton are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Coventry are rated 89 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,637 against 1,548. On rating alone Coventry would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Coventry score more

    1.25 goals a game over 71 matches for Everton, against 1.84 over 76 for Coventry.

  • Coventry concede fewer

    Everton concede 1.21 a game, Coventry 1.08.

  • Coventry games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Everton matches, against 58% for Coventry. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Everton
Coventry
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1547.5
ELO
1636.6
71
ELO · Matches
76
1547.5
Current Team ELO
1636.6
1636.6
Current Opponent ELO
1547.5
-89.08
Current ELO Difference
89.08
0.37
Expected score
0.63
71
History Matches
76
0.03
Residual Mean
0.09
52.40
Overperformance
56.93
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.10
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.78
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
76
1.32
PPG
1.92
33.8%
Win rate
57.9%
31.0%
Draw rate
18.4%
35.2%
Loss rate
23.7%
76.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.3%
40.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
23.9%
Over 3.5 rate
32.9%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
38
1.24
PPG
1.58
29.4%
Win rate
44.7%
35.3%
Draw rate
23.7%
35.3%
Loss rate
31.6%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.3%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
34
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.84
71.8%
Scoring rate
82.9%
49.3%
BTTS rate
53.9%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.68
76.5%
Scoring rate
78.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
71
History Matches
76
1.25
Goals Mean
1.84
1.06
Goals Std
1.42
71.8%
Scored 1+ rate
82.9%
38.0%
Scored 2+ rate
53.9%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
28.9%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.21
Goals against per game
1.08
73.2%
Conceding rate
63.2%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.24
70.6%
Conceding rate
65.8%
0.00
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
76
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.01
Conceded Std
1.04
35.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.9%
9.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.5%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
76
1.00
Result entropy
0.88
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.79
0.13
Stability score
11.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
76
24
Lead Matches
31
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
83.9%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.87
20
Trailing Matches
14
35.0%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.25
Rest days
73.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
52
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.06
27
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.87
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
9
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.24
Portability PPG Range
0.54
49.65
Portability Score
69.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-89.08
PPG-0.60
GF-0.59
GA0.13
PPG3.00
PPG-0.34
PPG0.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.59
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate2.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-11.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.16
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean5.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.69
Portability Score-19.59
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.80
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Current Team ELO-89.08
Current Opponent ELO89.08
Current ELO Difference-178.2
Expected score-0.25
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Everton

W
Newcastle0–1Everton2 Nov · away
Pick: Newcastle 44% · missed
W
Everton3–1Newcastle29 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle 43% · missed
L
Arsenal2–0Everton24 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal 57% · hit
L
Everton0–2Chelsea17 Oct · home
Pick: Everton 39% · missed
D
Bournemouth1–1Everton29 Aug · away
Pick: Bournemouth 37% · missed

Coventry

W
Coventry3–1Sunderland31 Oct · home
Pick: Coventry 44% · hit
L
Coventry0–1Fulham24 Oct · home
Pick: Coventry 40% · missed
L
Tottenham3–1Coventry19 Oct · away
Pick: Tottenham 49% · hit
W
Coventry4–1Newcastle12 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle 47% · missed
L
Coventry0–1Hull City29 Aug · home
Pick: Coventry 38% · missed

About this match

Everton and Coventry meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Everton win 50.8%, draw 22.6%, Coventry win 26.6%. The pick is Everton win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 46.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.