ScoreProb
Süper Lig Türkiye Round 11 2026

Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor

Eyüpspor Home · Elo 1,451
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kocaelispor Away · Elo 1,482
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kocaelispor win
Eyüpspor win
35.0%
Draw
25.8%
Kocaelispor winPick
39.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.6%
Under 2.554.4%

How much we know

Eyüpspor history61 matches
Kocaelispor history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Kocaelispor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kocaelispor are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,482 against 1,451. On rating alone Kocaelispor would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.10 goals a game over 61 matches for Eyüpspor, against 1.19 over 62 for Kocaelispor.

  • Kocaelispor concede fewer

    Eyüpspor concede 1.46 a game, Kocaelispor 1.16.

  • Eyüpspor games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Eyüpspor matches, against 34% for Kocaelispor. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eyüpspor
Kocaelispor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.2
ELO
1481.8
61
ELO · Matches
62
1451.2
Current Team ELO
1481.8
1481.8
Current Opponent ELO
1451.2
-30.62
Current ELO Difference
30.62
0.46
Expected score
0.54
61
History Matches
62
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
47.28
Overperformance
48.62
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.70
1.40
Goals for per game
0.50
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
62
1.05
PPG
1.31
27.9%
Win rate
33.9%
21.3%
Draw rate
29.0%
50.8%
Loss rate
37.1%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
33.9%
23.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
32
1.26
PPG
0.97
35.5%
Win rate
21.9%
19.4%
Draw rate
31.3%
45.2%
Loss rate
46.9%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
34.4%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
31
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.10
Goals for per game
1.19
62.3%
Scoring rate
64.5%
49.2%
BTTS rate
46.8%
1.35
Goals for per game
0.88
67.7%
Scoring rate
53.1%
48.4%
BTTS rate
46.9%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
61
History Matches
62
1.10
Goals Mean
1.19
1.30
Goals Std
1.33
62.3%
Scored 1+ rate
64.5%
26.2%
Scored 2+ rate
29.0%
9.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.1%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.16
80.3%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.44
74.2%
Conceding rate
84.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
61
History Matches
62
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.21
Conceded Std
1.07
36.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.8%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
46.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
46.9%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
62
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.79
6.29
Stability score
0.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
61
14
Lead Matches
19
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.89
20
Trailing Matches
13
10.0%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.77
Rest days
74.67
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
39
Normal Rest History Matches
40
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.43
Portability PPG Range
0.63
74.04
Portability Score
65.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-30.62
PPG-0.26
GF-0.10
GA0.30
PPG-1.50
PPG0.29
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.76
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score5.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.25
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score8.14
Rest days1.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO-30.62
Current Opponent ELO30.62
Current ELO Difference-61.24
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eyüpspor

L
Amed5–1Eyüpspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Amed 61% · hit
L
Eyüpspor0–1Kasımpaşa24 Oct · home
Pick: Kasımpaşa 45% · hit
L
Erzurumspor FK2–0Eyüpspor17 Oct · away
Pick: Erzurumspor FK 46% · hit
L
Eyüpspor0–4Göztepe12 Oct · home
Pick: Göztepe 46% · hit
W
Eyüpspor2–1Alanyaspor30 Aug · home
Pick: Alanyaspor 46% · missed

Kocaelispor

D
Kocaelispor0–0Rizespor31 Oct · home
Pick: Kocaelispor 44% · missed
W
Kocaelispor3–0Mazıdağı Fosfatspor27 Oct · home
Pick: Kocaelispor 53% · hit
W
Alanyaspor1–2Kocaelispor23 Oct · away
Pick: Alanyaspor 48% · missed
L
Kocaelispor1–2Göztepe18 Oct · home
Pick: Kocaelispor 41% · missed
W
Konyaspor1–2Kocaelispor29 Aug · away
Pick: Konyaspor 53% · missed

About this match

Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor meet in Süper Lig on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Eyüpspor win 35.0%, draw 25.8%, Kocaelispor win 39.2%. The pick is Kocaelispor win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.6%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.