ScoreProb
Campionato San Marino Round 8 2026

Faetano vs Domagnano

Faetano Home · Elo 1,383
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Domagnano Away · Elo 1,519
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Domagnano win
Faetano win
25.1%
Draw
31.4%
Domagnano winPick
43.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%

How much we know

Faetano history48 matches
Domagnano history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Domagnano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Domagnano are rated 135 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,383. On rating alone Domagnano would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Domagnano score far more

    0.94 goals a game over 48 matches for Faetano, against 1.62 over 50 for Domagnano.

  • Domagnano concede fewer

    Faetano concede 1.85 a game, Domagnano 1.36.

  • Domagnano games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Faetano matches, against 62% for Domagnano. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Faetano
Domagnano
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1383.3
ELO
1518.7
48
ELO · Matches
50
1383.3
Current Team ELO
1518.7
1518.7
Current Opponent ELO
1383.3
-135.3
Current ELO Difference
135.3
0.31
Expected score
0.69
48
History Matches
50
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.02
41.25
Overperformance
51.14
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
1.30
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.90
Goals against per game
1.90
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.97
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
50
0.85
PPG
1.38
22.9%
Win rate
38.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
24.0%
60.4%
Loss rate
38.0%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.0%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
26
0.70
PPG
1.38
17.4%
Win rate
38.5%
17.4%
Draw rate
23.1%
65.2%
Loss rate
38.5%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
23
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.94
Goals for per game
1.62
60.4%
Scoring rate
72.0%
47.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.87
Goals for per game
1.50
52.2%
Scoring rate
69.2%
43.5%
BTTS rate
46.2%
48
History Matches
50
0.94
Goals Mean
1.62
0.99
Goals Std
1.53
60.4%
Scored 1+ rate
72.0%
22.9%
Scored 2+ rate
44.0%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
0.87
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.85
Goals against per game
1.36
83.3%
Conceding rate
66.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.19
87.0%
Conceding rate
61.5%
48
History Matches
50
1.85
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.26
Conceded Std
1.41
64.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.0%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
39.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
47.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
39.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
47.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
50
0.86
Result entropy
0.98
1.64
Goal Difference Std
2.15
14.37
Stability score
1.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
50
6
Lead Matches
18
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.56
Lead Points Retention
0.89
23
Trailing Matches
17
17.4%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.29
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
195.0
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
34
0.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
16
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.39
Portability PPG Range
0.57
71.86
Portability Score
63.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-135.3
PPG-0.53
GF-0.68
GA0.49
PPG-0.69
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate11.6%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate17.1%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.68
Goals Std-0.55
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.49
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate26.6%
Conceded 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.03
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.51
Stability score12.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.89
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.39
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate4.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score8.22
Rest days20.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.13
Current Team ELO-135.3
Current Opponent ELO135.3
Current ELO Difference-270.7
Expected score-0.37
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Faetano

L
San Giovanni2–1Faetano1 Nov · away
Pick: San Giovanni 41% · hit
L
Faetano2–4Domagnano28 Oct · home
Pick: Domagnano 44% · hit
D
Faetano0–0La Fiorita25 Oct · home
Pick: La Fiorita 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Domagnano

L
Domagnano0–1Virtus31 Oct · home
Pick: Virtus 52% · hit
W
Faetano2–4Domagnano28 Oct · away
Pick: Domagnano 44% · hit
D
Murata2–2Domagnano24 Oct · away
Pick: Domagnano 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Faetano and Domagnano meet in Campionato on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Faetano win 25.1%, draw 31.4%, Domagnano win 43.5%. The pick is Domagnano win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.