ScoreProb
Campionato San Marino Round 8 2026

Juvenes / Dogana vs Pennarossa

Juvenes / Dogana Home · Elo 1,483
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pennarossa Away · Elo 1,435
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Juvenes / Dogana win
Juvenes / Dogana winPick
54.4%
Draw
25.0%
Pennarossa win
20.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Juvenes / Dogana history52 matches
Pennarossa history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Juvenes / Dogana are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Juvenes / Dogana are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,483 against 1,435. On rating alone Juvenes / Dogana would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Juvenes / Dogana score more

    1.15 goals a game over 52 matches for Juvenes / Dogana, against 0.98 over 46 for Pennarossa.

  • Juvenes / Dogana concede fewer

    Juvenes / Dogana concede 1.17 a game, Pennarossa 1.96.

  • Pennarossa games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Juvenes / Dogana matches, against 61% for Pennarossa. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 7 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Juvenes / Dogana
Pennarossa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.0
ELO
1435.1
52
ELO · Matches
46
1483.0
Current Team ELO
1435.1
1435.1
Current Opponent ELO
1483.0
47.81
Current ELO Difference
-47.81
0.57
Expected score
0.43
52
History Matches
46
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.07
48.80
Overperformance
44.97
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.90
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.48
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.57
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
46
1.27
PPG
0.93
30.8%
Win rate
21.7%
34.6%
Draw rate
28.3%
34.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
40.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
24
1.38
PPG
0.83
34.6%
Win rate
20.8%
34.6%
Draw rate
20.8%
30.8%
Loss rate
58.3%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
70.8%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
26
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.15
Goals for per game
0.98
67.3%
Scoring rate
58.7%
51.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.31
Goals for per game
0.88
73.1%
Scoring rate
54.2%
57.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
52
History Matches
46
1.15
Goals Mean
0.98
1.17
Goals Std
1.01
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
58.7%
30.8%
Scored 2+ rate
30.4%
9.6%
Scored 3+ rate
6.5%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.17
Goals against per game
1.96
71.2%
Conceding rate
82.6%
1.27
Goals against per game
2.25
76.9%
Conceding rate
95.8%
52
History Matches
46
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.96
1.05
Conceded Std
1.53
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.3%
11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.0%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
2.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
4.2%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
4.2%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
46
1.00
Result entropy
0.94
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.99
0.14
Stability score
5.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
46
15
Lead Matches
7
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.62
10
Trailing Matches
22
10.0%
Non-loss rate
13.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
184.8
Rest days
191.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.59
12
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.32
Portability PPG Range
0.26
79.17
Portability Score
79.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO47.81
PPG0.33
GF0.18
GA-0.78
PPG0.55
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate18.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate8.6%
Scored 2+ rate0.3%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.65
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.78
Conceded Std-0.48
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Conceded Mean-0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.67
History Matches6
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score-5.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.69
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate9.5%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score0.00
Rest days-7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.55
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO47.81
Current Opponent ELO-47.81
Current ELO Difference95.62
Expected score0.14
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance3.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Juvenes / Dogana

D
Cailungo1–1Juvenes / Dogana30 Oct · away
Pick: Juvenes / Dogana 58% · missed
L
Juvenes / Dogana1–3Tre Penne27 Oct · home
Pick: Tre Penne 46% · hit
L
Juvenes / Dogana0–1Virtus23 Oct · home
Pick: Virtus 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pennarossa

D
Pennarossa1–1San Marino Academy31 Oct · home
Pick: Pennarossa 47% · missed
W
Cailungo1–4Pennarossa27 Oct · away
Pick: Pennarossa 48% · hit
D
Pennarossa2–2San Giovanni23 Oct · home
Pick: San Giovanni 46% · missed
L
Tre Fiori5–2Pennarossa30 Aug · away
Pick: Tre Fiori 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Juvenes / Dogana and Pennarossa meet in Campionato on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Juvenes / Dogana win 54.4%, draw 25.0%, Pennarossa win 20.6%. The pick is Juvenes / Dogana win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.