ScoreProb
Campionato San Marino Round 8 2026

La Fiorita vs Cosmos

La Fiorita Home · Elo 1,623
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cosmos Away · Elo 1,522
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: La Fiorita win
La Fiorita winPick
53.0%
Draw
28.0%
Cosmos win
19.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%

How much we know

La Fiorita history67 matches
Cosmos history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why La Fiorita are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • La Fiorita are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,623 against 1,522. On rating alone La Fiorita would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • La Fiorita score far more

    1.82 goals a game over 67 matches for La Fiorita, against 1.15 over 54 for Cosmos.

  • La Fiorita concede fewer

    La Fiorita concede 0.76 a game, Cosmos 0.91.

  • La Fiorita games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of La Fiorita matches, against 35% for Cosmos. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
La Fiorita
Cosmos
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1623.1
ELO
1522.4
67
ELO · Matches
54
1623.1
Current Team ELO
1522.4
1522.4
Current Opponent ELO
1623.1
100.7
Current ELO Difference
-100.7
0.64
Expected score
0.36
67
History Matches
54
0.09
Residual Mean
0.02
57.12
Overperformance
51.71
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
54
1.94
PPG
1.48
53.7%
Win rate
38.9%
32.8%
Draw rate
31.5%
13.4%
Loss rate
29.6%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
59.3%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
35.2%
28.4%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
26
2.00
PPG
1.50
54.3%
Win rate
38.5%
37.1%
Draw rate
34.6%
8.6%
Loss rate
26.9%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
35
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.82
Goals for per game
1.15
80.6%
Scoring rate
57.4%
44.8%
BTTS rate
29.6%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.27
82.9%
Scoring rate
61.5%
48.6%
BTTS rate
34.6%
67
History Matches
54
1.82
Goals Mean
1.15
1.39
Goals Std
1.24
80.6%
Scored 1+ rate
57.4%
56.7%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
28.4%
Scored 3+ rate
20.4%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.76
Goals against per game
0.91
52.2%
Conceding rate
53.7%
0.71
Goals against per game
0.92
54.3%
Conceding rate
53.8%
67
History Matches
54
0.76
Conceded Mean
0.91
0.87
Conceded Std
1.06
19.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.1%
4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
42.6%
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
42.6%
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
54
0.88
Result entropy
0.99
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.68
11.79
Stability score
0.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
54
30
Lead Matches
13
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.95
7
Trailing Matches
14
42.9%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
115.8
Rest days
184.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
21
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.42
Portability PPG Range
1.01
72.42
Portability Score
54.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO100.7
PPG0.46
GF0.67
GA-0.15
PPG0.50
PPG-0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.67
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate23.2%
Scored 2+ rate23.4%
Scored 3+ rate8.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.21
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score11.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.60
Portability Score18.17
Rest days-69.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.20
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.85
Current Team ELO100.7
Current Opponent ELO-100.7
Current ELO Difference201.4
Expected score0.28
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

La Fiorita

W
La Fiorita1–0Libertas31 Oct · home
Pick: La Fiorita 71% · hit
D
Faetano0–0La Fiorita25 Oct · away
Pick: La Fiorita 64% · missed
D
Virtus0–0La Fiorita30 Aug · away
Pick: Virtus 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cosmos

W
Cosmos2–0Fiorentino1 Nov · home
Pick: Cosmos 51% · hit
D
Cosmos1–1San Giovanni27 Oct · home
Pick: Cosmos 49% · missed
W
San Marino Academy0–4Cosmos23 Oct · away
Pick: Cosmos 55% · hit
D
Cosmos1–1Libertas29 Aug · home
Pick: Cosmos 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

La Fiorita and Cosmos meet in Campionato on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: La Fiorita win 53.0%, draw 28.0%, Cosmos win 19.1%. The pick is La Fiorita win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.4%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.