ScoreProb
Azadegan League Iran Round 9 2026

Fard Alborz vs Be'sat Kermanshah

Fard Alborz Home · Elo 1,510
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Be'sat Kermanshah Away · Elo 1,446
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Fard Alborz win
35.2%
DrawPick
38.6%
Be'sat Kermanshah win
26.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes39.2%
No60.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.528.1%
Under 2.571.9%

How much we know

Fard Alborz history34 matches
Be'sat Kermanshah history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fard Alborz are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,510 against 1,446. On rating alone Fard Alborz would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.71 goals a game over 34 matches for Fard Alborz, against 0.67 over 49 for Be'sat Kermanshah.

  • Fard Alborz concede fewer

    Fard Alborz concede 0.44 a game, Be'sat Kermanshah 0.88.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    12% of Fard Alborz matches, against 18% for Be'sat Kermanshah. The model puts this match at 28% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fard Alborz
Be'sat Kermanshah
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.3
ELO
1445.6
34
ELO · Matches
49
1510.3
Current Team ELO
1445.6
1445.6
Current Opponent ELO
1510.3
64.68
Current ELO Difference
-64.68
0.59
Expected score
0.41
34
History Matches
49
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.06
50.93
Overperformance
45.97
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.20
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
0.70
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.40
1.74
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
49
1.35
PPG
1.06
29.4%
Win rate
20.4%
47.1%
Draw rate
44.9%
23.5%
Loss rate
34.7%
32.4%
Over 1.5 rate
53.1%
11.8%
Over 2.5 rate
18.4%
2.9%
Over 3.5 rate
6.1%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
25
1.47
PPG
0.84
35.3%
Win rate
12.0%
41.2%
Draw rate
48.0%
23.5%
Loss rate
40.0%
41.2%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
17.6%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
8.0%
0.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
17
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.71
Goals for per game
0.67
41.2%
Scoring rate
46.9%
17.6%
BTTS rate
32.7%
0.71
Goals for per game
0.60
52.9%
Scoring rate
44.0%
29.4%
BTTS rate
32.0%
34
History Matches
49
0.71
Goals Mean
0.67
1.18
Goals Std
0.87
41.2%
Scored 1+ rate
46.9%
17.6%
Scored 2+ rate
16.3%
2.9%
Scored 3+ rate
2.0%
0.71
Venue Goals Mean
0.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.44
Goals against per game
0.88
38.2%
Conceding rate
61.2%
0.59
Goals against per game
1.04
47.1%
Conceding rate
64.0%
34
History Matches
49
0.44
Conceded Mean
0.88
0.60
Conceded Std
0.82
5.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.5%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.0%
0.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
61.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
58.8%
Failed-to-score rate
53.1%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
56.0%
61.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
58.8%
Failed-to-score rate
53.1%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
56.0%
61.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
49
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.36
Goal Difference Std
1.18
3.96
Stability score
4.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
46
7
Lead Matches
6
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.72
5
Trailing Matches
13
20.0%
Non-loss rate
46.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.32
First Half Goals For Mean
0.20
0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
114.8
Rest days
114.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
9
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.87
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.02
—
Portability PPG Range
0.04
—
Portability Score
96.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO64.68
PPG0.29
GF0.03
GA-0.44
PPG0.63
PPG1.80
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate23.0%
Failed-to-score rate5.8%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate16.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-15
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate1.3%
Scored 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.08
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate23.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches-15
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score-0.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.99
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate33.3%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO64.68
Current Opponent ELO-64.68
Current ELO Difference129.4
Expected score0.18
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fard Alborz

W
Ario Eslamshahr0–3Fard Alborz2 Nov · away
Pick: Ario Eslamshahr 47% · missed
W
Fard Alborz2–0Havadar26 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
L
Naft Gachsaran4–2Fard Alborz19 Oct · away
Pick: Naft Gachsaran 46% · hit
L
Naft Masjed Soleyman1–0Fard Alborz4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Be'sat Kermanshah

D
Be'sat Kermanshah0–0Saipa2 Nov · home
Pick: Draw 42% · hit
D
Novin Ahvaz0–0Be'sat Kermanshah27 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 40% · hit
L
Be'sat Kermanshah1–2Pars Jonoubi JAM20 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
L
Ario Eslamshahr2–1Be'sat Kermanshah12 Oct · away
Pick: Ario Eslamshahr 41% · hit
W
Be'sat Kermanshah2–1Naft Bandar Abbas5 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 39% · missed

About this match

Fard Alborz and Be'sat Kermanshah meet in Azadegan League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Fard Alborz win 35.2%, draw 38.6%, Be'sat Kermanshah win 26.3%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 28.1%. Both teams to score: 39.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.