ScoreProb
Azadegan League Iran Round 9 2026

Shenavarsazi Qeshm vs Mes Rafsanjan

Shenavarsazi Qeshm Home · Elo 1,447
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mes Rafsanjan Away · Elo 1,415
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Shenavarsazi Qeshm win
Shenavarsazi Qeshm winPick
36.1%
Draw
35.2%
Mes Rafsanjan win
28.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.4%
No56.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.534.0%
Under 2.566.0%

How much we know

Shenavarsazi Qeshm history34 matches
Mes Rafsanjan history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Shenavarsazi Qeshm are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Shenavarsazi Qeshm are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,447 against 1,415. On rating alone Shenavarsazi Qeshm would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.59 goals a game over 34 matches for Shenavarsazi Qeshm, against 0.59 over 39 for Mes Rafsanjan.

  • Shenavarsazi Qeshm concede fewer

    Shenavarsazi Qeshm concede 1.03 a game, Mes Rafsanjan 1.15.

  • Mes Rafsanjan games more often go over 2.5 goals

    21% of Shenavarsazi Qeshm matches, against 31% for Mes Rafsanjan. The model puts this match at 34% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 12 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
Mes Rafsanjan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1446.7
ELO
1415.3
34
ELO · Matches
39
1446.7
Current Team ELO
1415.3
1415.3
Current Opponent ELO
1446.7
31.45
Current ELO Difference
-31.45
0.55
Expected score
0.45
34
History Matches
39
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.10
44.81
Overperformance
43.42
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.40
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.80
0.90
Goals for per game
0.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
39
0.94
PPG
0.79
20.6%
Win rate
15.4%
32.4%
Draw rate
33.3%
47.1%
Loss rate
51.3%
47.1%
Over 1.5 rate
48.7%
20.6%
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
5.9%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
18
1.44
PPG
0.56
37.5%
Win rate
11.1%
31.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
31.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
37.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
16
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.59
Goals for per game
0.59
47.1%
Scoring rate
35.9%
32.4%
BTTS rate
23.1%
0.88
Goals for per game
0.72
68.8%
Scoring rate
44.4%
37.5%
BTTS rate
33.3%
34
History Matches
39
0.59
Goals Mean
0.59
0.81
Goals Std
0.93
47.1%
Scored 1+ rate
35.9%
5.9%
Scored 2+ rate
17.9%
2.9%
Scored 3+ rate
2.6%
0.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.03
Goals against per game
1.15
67.6%
Conceding rate
56.4%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.56
50.0%
Conceding rate
72.2%
34
History Matches
39
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.15
0.89
Conceded Std
1.23
29.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.9%
5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
43.6%
52.9%
Failed-to-score rate
64.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
43.6%
52.9%
Failed-to-score rate
64.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
43.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
39
0.95
Result entropy
0.91
1.12
Goal Difference Std
1.45
4.86
Stability score
9.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
39
4
Lead Matches
4
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.58
11
Trailing Matches
13
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.24
First Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.28
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
119.9
Rest days
258.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
24
0.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
12
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.09
—
Portability PPG Range
0.18
—
Portability Score
85.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.45
PPG0.15
GF0.00
GA-0.12
PPG0.88
PPG0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate22.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate11.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-4.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.42
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-139.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO31.45
Current Opponent ELO-31.45
Current ELO Difference62.90
Expected score0.09
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shenavarsazi Qeshm

W
Niroye Zamini1–2Shenavarsazi Qeshm26 Oct · away
Pick: Niroye Zamini 48% · missed
W
Shenavarsazi Qeshm1–0Mes Kerman20 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
W
Saipa0–1Shenavarsazi Qeshm12 Oct · away
Pick: Saipa 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mes Rafsanjan

D
Mes Rafsanjan0–0Pars Jonoubi JAM2 Nov · home
Pick: Pars Jonoubi JAM 43% · missed
D
Naft Bandar Abbas0–0Mes Rafsanjan27 Oct · away
Pick: Naft Bandar Abbas 50% · missed
W
Mes Rafsanjan4–1Niroye Zamini20 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
W
Mes Kerman0–1Mes Rafsanjan12 Oct · away
Pick: Mes Kerman 45% · missed
W
Mes Rafsanjan1–0Ario Eslamshahr5 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 40% · missed

About this match

Shenavarsazi Qeshm and Mes Rafsanjan meet in Azadegan League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Shenavarsazi Qeshm win 36.1%, draw 35.2%, Mes Rafsanjan win 28.7%. The pick is Shenavarsazi Qeshm win. Over 2.5 goals: 34.0%. Both teams to score: 43.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.