Farense U23 vs Sporting CP U23
Match result probability Model pick: Sporting CP U23 win
Farense U23 win
31.6%
Draw
29.3%
Sporting CP U23 winPick
39.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.9%
No48.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.8%
Under 2.550.2%
How much we know
Farense U23 history48 matches
Sporting CP U23 history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Sporting CP U23
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Sporting CP U23 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Farense U23 are rated 55 Elo points higher
Elo 1,539 against 1,484. On rating alone Farense U23 would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.42 goals a game over 48 matches for Farense U23, against 1.32 over 47 for Sporting CP U23.
-
Farense U23 concede fewer
Farense U23 concede 1.06 a game, Sporting CP U23 1.30.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
48% of Farense U23 matches, against 51% for Sporting CP U23. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sporting CP U23@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1538.7
ELO
1484.0
48
ELO · Matches
47
1538.7
Current Team ELO
1484.0
1484.0
Current Opponent ELO
1538.7
54.65
Current ELO Difference
-54.65
0.58
Expected score
0.42
48
History Matches
47
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
52.74
Overperformance
48.47
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals 90
48
Matches
47
1.69
PPG
1.21
52.1%
Win rate
31.9%
12.5%
Draw rate
25.5%
35.4%
Loss rate
42.6%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.6%
47.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.1%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.4%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
25
1.67
PPG
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
32.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
24.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
44.0%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.32
72.9%
Scoring rate
74.5%
45.8%
BTTS rate
57.4%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.36
75.0%
Scoring rate
76.0%
45.8%
BTTS rate
52.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
48
History Matches
47
1.42
Goals Mean
1.32
1.20
Goals Std
1.13
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
74.5%
45.8%
Scored 2+ rate
38.3%
14.6%
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.06
Goals against per game
1.30
66.7%
Conceding rate
80.9%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.40
66.7%
Conceding rate
72.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
48
History Matches
47
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.30
0.99
Conceded Std
0.92
29.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.3%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
48
History Matches
47
0.88
Result entropy
0.98
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.56
11.95
Stability score
2.00
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
48
Eligible Matches
47
10
Lead Matches
15
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.80
12
Trailing Matches
13
16.7%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals 50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
80.77
Rest days
80.67
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.82
24
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
2.33
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.71
Portability PPG Range
1.17
61.53
Portability Score
48.48
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
48
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO54.65
PPG0.47
GF0.10
GA-0.24
PPG0.00
PPG0.47
PPG0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate14.2%
Failed-to-score rate1.6%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate1.0%
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate7.5%
Scored 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate14.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score9.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.95
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate26.7%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate1.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.46
Portability Score13.05
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.65
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO54.65
Current Opponent ELO-54.65
Current ELO Difference109.3
Expected score0.16
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Farense U23
L
Farense U232–3Academico Viseu U2327 Oct · home
Pick: Academico Viseu U23 38% · hit D
Estrela U231–1Farense U2320 Oct · away
Pick: Farense U23 53% · missed L
Farense U231–2União Leiria U2313 Oct · home
Pick: Farense U23 52% · missed L
Santa Clara U231–0Farense U239 Sep · away
Pick: Farense U23 37% · missed W
Farense U234–3Famalicão U231 Sep · home
Pick: Farense U23 44% · hit Sporting CP U23
W
Rio Ave U231–2Sporting CP U2327 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting CP U23 42% · hit W
Estrela U231–2Sporting CP U231 Sep · away
Pick: Sporting CP U23 48% · hit W
Sporting CP U234–1Benfica U2325 Aug · home
Pick: Benfica U23 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Farense U23 and Sporting CP U23 meet in Liga Revelação U23 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Farense U23 win 31.6%, draw 29.3%, Sporting CP U23 win 39.1%. The pick is Sporting CP U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.8%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.