ScoreProb
National League - South England National League South - 16 2026

Farnham Town vs Tonbridge Angels

Farnham Town Home · Elo 1,616
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tonbridge Angels Away · Elo 1,493
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tonbridge Angels win
Farnham Town win
35.7%
Draw
23.3%
Tonbridge Angels winPick
41.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.7%
No41.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%

How much we know

Farnham Town history74 matches
Tonbridge Angels history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tonbridge Angels are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Farnham Town are rated 123 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,616 against 1,493. On rating alone Farnham Town would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Farnham Town score far more

    2.14 goals a game over 74 matches for Farnham Town, against 1.36 over 80 for Tonbridge Angels.

  • Farnham Town concede fewer

    Farnham Town concede 1.15 a game, Tonbridge Angels 1.44.

  • Farnham Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Farnham Town matches, against 53% for Tonbridge Angels. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Farnham Town
Tonbridge Angels
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1615.8
ELO
1493.0
74
ELO · Matches
80
1615.8
Current Team ELO
1493.0
1493.0
Current Opponent ELO
1615.8
122.8
Current ELO Difference
-122.8
0.67
Expected score
0.33
74
History Matches
80
0.08
Residual Mean
0.00
56.04
Overperformance
49.95
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.80
1.50
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.92
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
80
2.00
PPG
1.21
59.5%
Win rate
32.5%
21.6%
Draw rate
23.8%
18.9%
Loss rate
43.8%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.3%
68.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
40.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.8%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
39
2.05
PPG
1.28
60.5%
Win rate
33.3%
23.7%
Draw rate
28.2%
15.8%
Loss rate
38.5%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
65.8%
Over 2.5 rate
43.6%
39.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
38
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.14
Goals for per game
1.36
90.5%
Scoring rate
68.8%
62.2%
BTTS rate
53.8%
2.03
Goals for per game
1.26
94.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
63.2%
BTTS rate
48.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
74
History Matches
80
2.14
Goals Mean
1.36
1.37
Goals Std
1.39
90.5%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
64.9%
Scored 2+ rate
36.3%
36.5%
Scored 3+ rate
17.5%
2.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.44
70.3%
Conceding rate
78.8%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.28
68.4%
Conceding rate
79.5%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
80
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.02
Conceded Std
1.11
31.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.8%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.0%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
80
0.87
Result entropy
0.97
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.79
13.05
Stability score
2.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
80
27
Lead Matches
22
85.2%
Lead Win Rate
54.5%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.67
16
Trailing Matches
28
62.5%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
10.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.89
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
1.22
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.88
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.40
58
Normal Rest History Matches
65
2.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
7
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
1.50
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.68
Portability PPG Range
1.21
46.63
Portability Score
55.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO122.8
PPG0.79
GF0.77
GA-0.29
PPG-0.75
PPG0.77
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.77
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate21.8%
Scored 2+ rate28.6%
Scored 3+ rate19.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.11
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score10.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.93
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate30.6%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate37.5%
Trailing Win Rate8.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.47
Portability Score-9.17
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.48
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.82
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO122.8
Current Opponent ELO-122.8
Current ELO Difference245.6
Expected score0.34
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Farnham Town

W
Chelmsford City0–2Farnham Town2 Nov · away
Pick: Chelmsford City 54% · missed
L
Dover1–0Farnham Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Dover 44% · hit
W
Chesham United2–4Farnham Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Farnham Town 37% · hit
W
Farnham Town6–0Braintree24 Oct · home
Pick: Farnham Town 52% · hit
D
Farnham Town2–2Truro City6 Oct · home
Pick: Truro City 48% · missed

Tonbridge Angels

L
Tonbridge Angels1–2Salisbury31 Oct · home
Pick: Salisbury 37% · hit
W
Tonbridge Angels2–0Folkestone Invicta27 Oct · home
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 42% · missed
D
Chelmsford City3–3Tonbridge Angels24 Oct · away
Pick: Chelmsford City 41% · missed
W
Tonbridge Angels5–1Walton & Hersham31 Aug · home
Pick: Tonbridge Angels 54% · hit
D
Billericay Town2–2Tonbridge Angels29 Aug · away
Pick: Billericay Town 57% · missed

About this match

Farnham Town and Tonbridge Angels meet in National League - South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Farnham Town win 35.7%, draw 23.3%, Tonbridge Angels win 41.0%. The pick is Tonbridge Angels win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.4%. Both teams to score: 58.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.