ScoreProb
National League - South England National League South - 16 2026

Ebbsfleet United vs Chesham United

Ebbsfleet United Home · Elo 1,532
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chesham United Away · Elo 1,499
Stonebridge Road Stadium, Northfleet Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ebbsfleet United win
Ebbsfleet United winPick
44.9%
Draw
25.1%
Chesham United win
30.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%
No42.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.9%
Under 2.537.1%

How much we know

Ebbsfleet United history79 matches
Chesham United history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ebbsfleet United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ebbsfleet United are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,499. On rating alone Ebbsfleet United would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.51 goals a game over 79 matches for Ebbsfleet United, against 1.37 over 75 for Chesham United.

  • Defences are close

    Ebbsfleet United concede 1.46 a game, Chesham United 1.41.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Ebbsfleet United matches, against 59% for Chesham United. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ebbsfleet United
Chesham United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.5
ELO
1499.1
79
ELO · Matches
75
1531.5
Current Team ELO
1499.1
1499.1
Current Opponent ELO
1531.5
32.42
Current ELO Difference
-32.42
0.55
Expected score
0.45
79
History Matches
75
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.91
Overperformance
49.76
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
79
Matches
75
1.39
PPG
1.35
39.2%
Win rate
38.7%
21.5%
Draw rate
18.7%
39.2%
Loss rate
42.7%
82.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.7%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.7%
39.2%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
39
1.76
PPG
1.10
51.2%
Win rate
28.2%
22.0%
Draw rate
25.6%
26.8%
Loss rate
46.2%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
63.4%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
36.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
41
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.37
77.2%
Scoring rate
76.0%
55.7%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.18
87.8%
Scoring rate
71.8%
53.7%
BTTS rate
61.5%
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
50.0%
—
BTTS rate
25.0%
79
History Matches
75
1.51
Goals Mean
1.37
1.22
Goals Std
1.20
77.2%
Scored 1+ rate
76.0%
45.6%
Scored 2+ rate
36.0%
17.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.41
74.7%
Conceding rate
78.7%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.56
63.4%
Conceding rate
84.6%
—
Goals against per game
1.75
—
Conceding rate
75.0%
79
History Matches
75
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.17
Conceded Std
1.06
46.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.0%
17.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
22.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
—
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
22.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
79
History Matches
75
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.62
3.08
Stability score
4.96
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
75
27
Lead Matches
20
70.4%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.85
21
Trailing Matches
25
9.5%
Non-loss rate
32.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
24.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
98.88
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
66
Normal Rest History Matches
60
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
8
Long Rest History Matches
9
0.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
0
Matches
4
—
PPG
0.75
—
Win rate
25.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
75.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
0
Current Competition Matches
4
—
Current Competition PPG
0.75
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
6
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.66
Portability PPG Range
0.92
49.06
Portability Score
57.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
79
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO32.42
PPG0.05
GF0.13
GA0.04
PPG0.65
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate21.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate1.2%
Scored 2+ rate9.6%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.38
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Conceded 2+ rate2.8%
Conceded 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches4
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score-1.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.24
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches-4
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.75
Portability Score-8.54
Rest days21.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.24
Current Team ELO32.42
Current Opponent ELO-32.42
Current ELO Difference64.85
Expected score0.09
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ebbsfleet United

W
Farnborough0–6Ebbsfleet United3 Nov · away
Pick: Farnborough 43% · missed
L
Truro City3–0Ebbsfleet United31 Oct · away
Pick: Truro City 46% · hit
W
Maidstone Utd1–3Ebbsfleet United27 Oct · away
Pick: Maidstone Utd 47% · missed
W
Ebbsfleet United4–0Maidenhead24 Oct · home
Pick: Ebbsfleet United 38% · hit
D
Ebbsfleet United2–2Horsham20 Oct · home
Pick: Horsham 41% · missed

Chesham United

D
Chesham United2–2Folkestone Invicta31 Oct · home
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 53% · missed
L
Chesham United2–4Farnham Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Farnham Town 37% · hit
L
Dagenham & Redbridge2–0Chesham United24 Oct · away
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 62% · hit
D
Chesham United0–0Forest Green17 Oct · home
Pick: Forest Green 47% · missed
D
Chesham United2–2Dover31 Aug · home
Pick: Dover 39% · missed

About this match

Ebbsfleet United and Chesham United meet in National League - South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Stonebridge Road Stadium, Northfleet. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ebbsfleet United win 44.9%, draw 25.1%, Chesham United win 30.0%. The pick is Ebbsfleet United win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.9%. Both teams to score: 57.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.