ScoreProb
National League - South England National League South - 16 2026

Hemel Hempstead Town vs Maidstone Utd

Hemel Hempstead Town Home · Elo 1,555
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Maidstone Utd Away · Elo 1,626
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hemel Hempstead Town win
Hemel Hempstead Town winPick
37.8%
Draw
27.6%
Maidstone Utd win
34.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.6%
No53.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.0%
Under 2.555.0%

How much we know

Hemel Hempstead Town history84 matches
Maidstone Utd history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Hemel Hempstead Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Maidstone Utd are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,626 against 1,555. On rating alone Maidstone Utd would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Maidstone Utd score more

    1.32 goals a game over 84 matches for Hemel Hempstead Town, against 1.64 over 80 for Maidstone Utd.

  • Maidstone Utd concede fewer

    Hemel Hempstead Town concede 1.18 a game, Maidstone Utd 0.96.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Hemel Hempstead Town matches, against 50% for Maidstone Utd. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hemel Hempstead Town
Maidstone Utd
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1555.2
ELO
1625.7
84
ELO · Matches
80
1555.2
Current Team ELO
1625.7
1625.7
Current Opponent ELO
1555.2
-70.47
Current ELO Difference
70.47
0.40
Expected score
0.60
84
History Matches
80
0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
52.71
Overperformance
55.63
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.50
1.10
Goals for per game
2.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
80
1.61
PPG
1.71
44.0%
Win rate
48.8%
28.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
27.4%
Loss rate
26.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
51.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.5%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
43
1.70
PPG
1.47
46.5%
Win rate
39.5%
30.2%
Draw rate
27.9%
23.3%
Loss rate
32.6%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.1%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
46.5%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
43
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.32
Goals for per game
1.64
71.4%
Scoring rate
73.8%
48.8%
BTTS rate
42.5%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.35
76.7%
Scoring rate
67.4%
51.2%
BTTS rate
44.2%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
84
History Matches
80
1.32
Goals Mean
1.64
1.11
Goals Std
1.52
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
73.8%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
45.0%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
27.5%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
0.96
66.7%
Conceding rate
58.8%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.12
65.1%
Conceding rate
65.1%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
84
History Matches
80
1.18
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.22
Conceded Std
1.04
29.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
80
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.94
2.26
Stability score
4.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
80
22
Lead Matches
31
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
74.2%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.80
28
Trailing Matches
14
39.3%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.89
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
68
Normal Rest History Matches
67
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
6
Long Rest History Matches
8
0.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
7
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.87
Portability PPG Range
1.44
46.35
Portability Score
48.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-70.47
PPG-0.11
GF-0.32
GA0.22
PPG0.00
PPG0.23
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.32
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches4
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score-2.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate7.6%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-2.54
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.96
Current Team ELO-70.47
Current Opponent ELO70.47
Current ELO Difference-140.9
Expected score-0.20
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hemel Hempstead Town

L
Billericay Town5–0Hemel Hempstead Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Billericay Town 56% · hit
D
Dorking Wanderers3–3Hemel Hempstead Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Dorking Wanderers 42% · missed
L
Hemel Hempstead Town1–3AFC Totton24 Oct · home
Pick: Hemel Hempstead Town 48% · missed
L
Folkestone Invicta2–0Hemel Hempstead Town31 Aug · away
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 55% · hit
L
Hemel Hempstead Town1–3Weston-super-Mare29 Aug · home
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 39% · hit

Maidstone Utd

W
Maidstone Utd2–1Slough Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Maidstone Utd 71% · hit
L
Maidstone Utd1–3Ebbsfleet United27 Oct · home
Pick: Maidstone Utd 47% · missed
D
Torquay1–1Maidstone Utd24 Oct · away
Pick: Maidstone Utd 40% · missed
W
Maidstone Utd2–1Maidenhead17 Oct · home
Pick: Maidstone Utd 51% · hit
W
Hampton & Richmond1–4Maidstone Utd31 Aug · away
Pick: Maidstone Utd 63% · hit

About this match

Hemel Hempstead Town and Maidstone Utd meet in National League - South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hemel Hempstead Town win 37.8%, draw 27.6%, Maidstone Utd win 34.6%. The pick is Hemel Hempstead Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.0%. Both teams to score: 46.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.