ScoreProb
National League - South England National League South - 16 2026

Hampton & Richmond vs Maidenhead

Hampton & Richmond Home · Elo 1,448
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Maidenhead Away · Elo 1,520
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Maidenhead win
Hampton & Richmond win
25.8%
Draw
22.2%
Maidenhead winPick
52.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.2%
No50.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Hampton & Richmond history77 matches
Maidenhead history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Maidenhead are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Maidenhead are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,448. On rating alone Maidenhead would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 77 matches for Hampton & Richmond, against 1.28 over 82 for Maidenhead.

  • Maidenhead concede fewer

    Hampton & Richmond concede 1.86 a game, Maidenhead 1.07.

  • Hampton & Richmond games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Hampton & Richmond matches, against 41% for Maidenhead. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hampton & Richmond
Maidenhead
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.5
ELO
1520.1
77
ELO · Matches
82
1447.5
Current Team ELO
1520.1
1520.1
Current Opponent ELO
1447.5
-72.55
Current ELO Difference
72.55
0.40
Expected score
0.60
77
History Matches
82
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
47.34
Overperformance
51.09
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.40
2.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.90
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
2.10
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.39
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
82
0.99
PPG
1.49
27.3%
Win rate
41.5%
16.9%
Draw rate
24.4%
55.8%
Loss rate
34.1%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
65.9%
59.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.5%
33.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
40
1.14
PPG
1.43
32.4%
Win rate
37.5%
16.2%
Draw rate
30.0%
51.4%
Loss rate
32.5%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
52.5%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
22.5%
40.5%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
37
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.28
66.2%
Scoring rate
68.3%
50.6%
BTTS rate
41.5%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.03
73.0%
Scoring rate
55.0%
56.8%
BTTS rate
27.5%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.50
25.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
77
History Matches
82
1.18
Goals Mean
1.28
1.20
Goals Std
1.22
66.2%
Scored 1+ rate
68.3%
31.2%
Scored 2+ rate
37.8%
13.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.6%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.86
Goals against per game
1.07
79.2%
Conceding rate
64.6%
1.89
Goals against per game
0.78
78.4%
Conceding rate
57.5%
3.25
Goals against per game
0.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
77
History Matches
82
1.86
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.54
Conceded Std
1.11
57.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.0%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
1.89
Venue Conceded Mean
0.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
33.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.5%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
33.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.5%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
82
0.89
Result entropy
0.98
2.10
Goal Difference Std
1.76
10.79
Stability score
2.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
81
14
Lead Matches
25
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.89
37
Trailing Matches
22
8.1%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.91
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
66
Normal Rest History Matches
68
0.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
7
Long Rest History Matches
8
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
1.25
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.60
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.83
45.85
Portability Score
45.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-72.55
PPG-0.50
GF-0.10
GA0.78
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.29
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate2.1%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.78
Conceded Std0.43
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate29.1%
Conceded 3+ rate17.5%
Venue Conceded Mean1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score8.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.76
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score0.25
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.29
Current Team ELO-72.55
Current Opponent ELO72.55
Current ELO Difference-145.1
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hampton & Richmond

L
Dorking Wanderers3–2Hampton & Richmond3 Nov · away
Pick: Dorking Wanderers 66% · hit
L
Braintree1–0Hampton & Richmond31 Oct · away
Pick: Braintree 52% · hit
D
Billericay Town2–2Hampton & Richmond27 Oct · away
Pick: Billericay Town 72% · missed
L
Hampton & Richmond3–4Truro City24 Oct · home
Pick: Truro City 60% · hit
L
Hampton & Richmond1–4Maidstone Utd31 Aug · home
Pick: Maidstone Utd 63% · hit

Maidenhead

D
Maidenhead0–0Dagenham & Redbridge31 Oct · home
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 40% · missed
D
Maidenhead1–1Horsham27 Oct · home
Pick: Maidenhead 36% · missed
L
Ebbsfleet United4–0Maidenhead24 Oct · away
Pick: Ebbsfleet United 38% · hit
L
Maidstone Utd2–1Maidenhead17 Oct · away
Pick: Maidstone Utd 51% · hit
D
Maidenhead1–1AFC Totton31 Aug · home
Pick: Maidenhead 44% · missed

About this match

Hampton & Richmond and Maidenhead meet in National League - South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hampton & Richmond win 25.8%, draw 22.2%, Maidenhead win 52.0%. The pick is Maidenhead win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 49.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.