ScoreProb
Challenge League Switzerland Round 13 2026

FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900

FC Aarau Home · Elo 1,582
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC WIL 1900 Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Aarau win
FC Aarau winPick
58.8%
Draw
21.1%
FC WIL 1900 win
20.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.5%
No37.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%

How much we know

FC Aarau history74 matches
FC WIL 1900 history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Aarau are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Aarau are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,582 against 1,490. On rating alone FC Aarau would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • FC Aarau score more

    1.82 goals a game over 74 matches for FC Aarau, against 1.40 over 65 for FC WIL 1900.

  • FC Aarau concede fewer

    FC Aarau concede 1.51 a game, FC WIL 1900 1.71.

  • FC Aarau games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of FC Aarau matches, against 57% for FC WIL 1900. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Aarau
FC WIL 1900@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1582.4
ELO
1489.7
74
ELO · Matches
65
1582.4
Current Team ELO
1489.7
1489.7
Current Opponent ELO
1582.4
92.69
Current ELO Difference
-92.69
0.63
Expected score
0.37
74
History Matches
65
0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
53.94
Overperformance
49.80
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.90
1.50
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.12
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
65
1.80
PPG
1.26
52.7%
Win rate
33.8%
21.6%
Draw rate
24.6%
25.7%
Loss rate
41.5%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.9%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
31
2.03
PPG
1.29
61.1%
Win rate
35.5%
19.4%
Draw rate
22.6%
19.4%
Loss rate
41.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
38.7%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
36
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.82
Goals for per game
1.40
90.5%
Scoring rate
66.2%
67.6%
BTTS rate
52.3%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.45
91.7%
Scoring rate
64.5%
52.8%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
65
1.82
Goals Mean
1.40
1.21
Goals Std
1.42
90.5%
Scored 1+ rate
66.2%
55.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
21.6%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.51
Goals against per game
1.71
74.3%
Conceding rate
75.4%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.81
58.3%
Conceding rate
77.4%
1.75
Goals against per game
3.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
74
History Matches
65
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.71
1.40
Conceded Std
1.38
39.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
21.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.5%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
65
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.94
7.36
Stability score
2.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
63
24
Lead Matches
16
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.75
17
Trailing Matches
25
41.2%
Non-loss rate
16.0%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
1.01
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.30
Rest days
76.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.78
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
25
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
0.75
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.75
9
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.47
Portability PPG Range
1.05
47.16
Portability Score
55.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO92.69
PPG0.54
GF0.42
GA-0.19
PPG0.25
PPG0.74
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate19.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate24.4%
Scored 2+ rate15.4%
Scored 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.34
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score5.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.16
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate14.6%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate25.2%
Trailing Win Rate13.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-8.64
Rest days-0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.22
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.23
Current Team ELO92.69
Current Opponent ELO-92.69
Current ELO Difference185.4
Expected score0.26
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance4.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Aarau

W
Neuchatel Xamax FC1–3FC Aarau30 Oct · away
Pick: Neuchatel Xamax FC 46% · missed
L
FC Aarau1–2Étoile Carouge24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Aarau 41% · missed
W
FC Aarau2–0FC Zurich18 Oct · home
Pick: FC Aarau 51% · hit
D
FC WIL 19002–2FC Aarau31 Aug · away
Pick: FC Aarau 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC WIL 1900

L
FC WIL 19000–3FC Winterthur1 Nov · home
Pick: FC Winterthur 50% · hit
D
FC WIL 19002–2Rapperswil23 Oct · home
Pick: Rapperswil 49% · missed
W
Bulle0–1FC WIL 190017 Oct · away
Pick: FC WIL 1900 43% · hit
D
FC WIL 19002–2FC Aarau31 Aug · home
Pick: FC Aarau 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Aarau and FC WIL 1900 meet in Challenge League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: FC Aarau win 58.8%, draw 21.1%, FC WIL 1900 win 20.1%. The pick is FC Aarau win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.2%. Both teams to score: 62.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.