ScoreProb
Challenge League Switzerland Round 13 2026

Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Stade Nyonnais Home · Elo 1,425
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Away · Elo 1,570
Colovray Sports Centre, Nyon Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win
Stade Nyonnais win
21.9%
Draw
24.5%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy winPick
53.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.1%
No48.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.6%
Under 2.552.4%

How much we know

Stade Nyonnais history63 matches
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are rated 145 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,570 against 1,425. On rating alone Stade Lausanne-Ouchy would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score more

    1.13 goals a game over 63 matches for Stade Nyonnais, against 1.65 over 69 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.

  • Stade Lausanne-Ouchy concede fewer

    Stade Nyonnais concede 1.60 a game, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Stade Nyonnais matches, against 54% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stade Nyonnais
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1425.0
ELO
1570.4
63
ELO · Matches
69
1425.0
Current Team ELO
1570.4
1570.4
Current Opponent ELO
1425.0
-145.4
Current ELO Difference
145.4
0.30
Expected score
0.70
63
History Matches
69
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.05
45.38
Overperformance
53.94
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.60
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.90
1.30
Goals for per game
2.10
2.20
Goals against per game
1.30
10.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.12
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
69
0.95
PPG
1.72
20.6%
Win rate
52.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
15.9%
46.0%
Loss rate
31.9%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.2%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
30.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
34
1.13
PPG
1.71
26.7%
Win rate
52.9%
33.3%
Draw rate
11.8%
40.0%
Loss rate
35.3%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.6%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
30
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.65
68.3%
Scoring rate
76.8%
57.1%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.56
73.3%
Scoring rate
76.5%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.75
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
69
1.13
Goals Mean
1.65
1.12
Goals Std
1.44
68.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.8%
23.8%
Scored 2+ rate
53.6%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.4%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.60
Goals against per game
1.19
81.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.26
76.7%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
69
1.60
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.29
Conceded Std
1.09
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.8%
20.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.9%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
69
0.95
Result entropy
0.91
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.95
4.52
Stability score
9.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
68
15
Lead Matches
24
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.88
24
Trailing Matches
11
12.5%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
28
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
2.50
0.0%
Win rate
75.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
2.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.42
Portability PPG Range
1.11
47.98
Portability Score
53.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-145.4
PPG-0.77
GF-0.53
GA0.41
PPG-2.25
PPG-0.57
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate8.6%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate3.1%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.53
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.93
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.41
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate9.7%
Conceded 3+ rate4.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score-4.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.09
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.28
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.31
Portability Score-5.76
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.25
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Current Team ELO-145.4
Current Opponent ELO145.4
Current ELO Difference-290.9
Expected score-0.40
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stade Nyonnais

W
Rapperswil1–4Stade Nyonnais30 Oct · away
Pick: Rapperswil 49% · missed
L
FC Winterthur4–0Stade Nyonnais23 Oct · away
Pick: FC Winterthur 60% · hit
L
Stade Nyonnais0–3FC Basel 189316 Oct · home
Pick: FC Basel 1893 59% · hit
D
Stade Nyonnais2–2FC Winterthur1 Sep · home
Pick: FC Winterthur 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

W
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3–2Yverdon Sport30 Oct · home
Pick: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 48% · hit
D
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy0–0Neuchatel Xamax FC23 Oct · home
Pick: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 52% · missed
W
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3–0Étoile Carouge16 Oct · home
Pick: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 53% · hit
W
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3–0Étoile Carouge1 Sep · home
Pick: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Stade Nyonnais and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy meet in Challenge League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. The match is played at Colovray Sports Centre, Nyon. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Stade Nyonnais win 21.9%, draw 24.5%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win 53.7%. The pick is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.6%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.