ScoreProb
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 15 2026

FC Astoria Walldorf vs FC 08 Homburg

FC Astoria Walldorf Home · Elo 1,518
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC 08 Homburg Away · Elo 1,621
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC 08 Homburg win
FC Astoria Walldorf win
30.6%
Draw
20.9%
FC 08 Homburg winPick
48.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.6%
No34.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.9%
Under 2.528.1%

How much we know

FC Astoria Walldorf history63 matches
FC 08 Homburg history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC 08 Homburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC 08 Homburg are rated 104 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,621 against 1,518. On rating alone FC 08 Homburg would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • FC 08 Homburg score more

    1.89 goals a game over 63 matches for FC Astoria Walldorf, against 2.26 over 76 for FC 08 Homburg.

  • FC 08 Homburg concede fewer

    FC Astoria Walldorf concede 1.71 a game, FC 08 Homburg 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of FC Astoria Walldorf matches, against 66% for FC 08 Homburg. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Astoria Walldorf
FC 08 Homburg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.7
ELO
1621.2
63
ELO · Matches
76
1517.7
Current Team ELO
1621.2
1621.2
Current Opponent ELO
1517.7
-103.5
Current ELO Difference
103.5
0.36
Expected score
0.64
63
History Matches
76
0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
51.12
Overperformance
55.22
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.80
1.70
Goals for per game
1.70
1.90
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
76
1.46
PPG
1.79
39.7%
Win rate
52.6%
27.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
26.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
65.8%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
46.1%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
43
1.66
PPG
1.58
46.9%
Win rate
44.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.6%
28.1%
Loss rate
30.2%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.4%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.1%
68.8%
Over 3.5 rate
48.8%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
32
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.89
Goals for per game
2.26
81.0%
Scoring rate
84.2%
69.8%
BTTS rate
63.2%
2.28
Goals for per game
2.14
87.5%
Scoring rate
81.4%
68.8%
BTTS rate
60.5%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
63
History Matches
76
1.89
Goals Mean
2.26
1.50
Goals Std
1.73
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.2%
52.4%
Scored 2+ rate
60.5%
31.7%
Scored 3+ rate
39.5%
2.28
Venue Goals Mean
2.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.71
Goals against per game
1.33
81.0%
Conceding rate
76.3%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.53
75.0%
Conceding rate
74.4%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
76
1.71
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.41
Conceded Std
1.16
47.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.2%
25.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
76
0.99
Result entropy
0.93
2.24
Goal Difference Std
2.24
1.11
Stability score
7.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
74
20
Lead Matches
32
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.1%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.82
20
Trailing Matches
24
45.0%
Non-loss rate
41.7%
15.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.87
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.32
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
42
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.87
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.14
46.40
Portability Score
55.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-103.5
PPG-0.33
GF-0.37
GA0.39
PPG-1.67
PPG0.07
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean0.39
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-6.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.52
Portability Score-9.42
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.23
Current Team ELO-103.5
Current Opponent ELO103.5
Current ELO Difference-207.1
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-13
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Astoria Walldorf

D
SGV Freiberg0–0FC Astoria Walldorf31 Oct · away
Pick: SGV Freiberg 60% · missed
W
FC Astoria Walldorf4–1Hessen Kassel24 Oct · home
Pick: Hessen Kassel 45% · missed
L
VfR Aalen2–0FC Astoria Walldorf17 Oct · away
Pick: VfR Aalen 60% · hit
D
FC Astoria Walldorf0–0SSV Ulm 184629 Aug · home
Pick: FC Astoria Walldorf 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC 08 Homburg

D
FC 08 Homburg0–0Eintracht Trier30 Oct · home
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 53% · missed
D
SSV Ulm 18461–1FC 08 Homburg25 Oct · away
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 50% · missed
W
FC 08 Homburg2–1Freiburg II18 Oct · home
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 45% · hit
L
FC 08 Homburg0–1Stuttgarter Kickers29 Aug · home
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Astoria Walldorf and FC 08 Homburg meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Astoria Walldorf win 30.6%, draw 20.9%, FC 08 Homburg win 48.5%. The pick is FC 08 Homburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.9%. Both teams to score: 65.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.