ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC

FC Cincinnati Home · Elo 1,579
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nashville SC Away · Elo 1,599
TQL Stadium, Cincinnati Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nashville SC win
FC Cincinnati win
31.4%
Draw
24.2%
Nashville SC winPick
44.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.3%
No37.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%

How much we know

FC Cincinnati history45 matches
Nashville SC history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Nashville SC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,579 against 1,599. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • FC Cincinnati score more

    2.27 goals a game over 45 matches for FC Cincinnati, against 1.88 over 65 for Nashville SC.

  • Nashville SC concede fewer

    FC Cincinnati concede 1.69 a game, Nashville SC 1.05.

  • FC Cincinnati games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of FC Cincinnati matches, against 60% for Nashville SC. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Cincinnati
Nashville SC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1579.5
ELO
1599.5
45
ELO · Matches
65
1579.5
Current Team ELO
1599.5
1599.5
Current Opponent ELO
1579.5
-20.01
Current ELO Difference
20.01
0.47
Expected score
0.53
45
History Matches
65
0.08
Residual Mean
0.10
55.81
Overperformance
57.27
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.90
2.20
Goals for per game
1.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
65
1.80
PPG
1.89
51.1%
Win rate
56.9%
26.7%
Draw rate
18.5%
22.2%
Loss rate
24.6%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
68.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
25
2.27
PPG
1.20
68.2%
Win rate
32.0%
22.7%
Draw rate
24.0%
9.1%
Loss rate
44.0%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
68.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
22
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.27
Goals for per game
1.88
95.6%
Scoring rate
80.0%
75.6%
BTTS rate
53.8%
2.77
Goals for per game
1.16
100.0%
Scoring rate
72.0%
68.2%
BTTS rate
48.0%
2.41
Goals for per game
2.06
94.1%
Scoring rate
82.4%
88.2%
BTTS rate
52.9%
45
History Matches
65
2.27
Goals Mean
1.88
1.60
Goals Std
1.52
95.6%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
62.2%
Scored 2+ rate
53.8%
37.8%
Scored 3+ rate
30.8%
2.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.69
Goals against per game
1.05
80.0%
Conceding rate
67.7%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.28
68.2%
Conceding rate
72.0%
2.24
Goals against per game
0.94
94.1%
Conceding rate
64.7%
45
History Matches
65
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.41
Conceded Std
0.92
48.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.6%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
4.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
4.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
65
0.94
Result entropy
0.89
2.19
Goal Difference Std
1.74
6.27
Stability score
11.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
65
19
Lead Matches
24
63.2%
Lead Win Rate
79.2%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.83
9
Trailing Matches
13
33.3%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
1.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.43
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.11
17
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
1.59
PPG
2.29
41.2%
Win rate
70.6%
35.3%
Draw rate
17.6%
23.5%
Loss rate
11.8%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
58.8%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.23
17
Current Competition Matches
17
1.59
Current Competition PPG
2.29
0.18
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.12
8
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.68
Portability PPG Range
2.00
62.51
Portability Score
46.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-20.01
PPG-0.09
GF0.39
GA0.64
PPG-0.71
PPG1.07
PPG-0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-20
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate15.6%
Scored 2+ rate8.4%
Scored 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean0.64
Conceded Std0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate18.1%
Conceded 3+ rate17.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches-20
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.44
Stability score-4.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches-21
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate3.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-21
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.94
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-1.32
Portability Score16.05
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.32
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO-20.01
Current Opponent ELO20.01
Current ELO Difference-40.02
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-20
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Cincinnati

W
FC Cincinnati1–0Philadelphia Union31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Cincinnati 55% · hit
D
Inter Miami2–2FC Cincinnati28 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Miami 57% · missed
W
DC United0–2FC Cincinnati24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Cincinnati 47% · hit
W
FC Cincinnati2–1DC United21 Oct · home
Pick: FC Cincinnati 58% · hit
L
FC Cincinnati2–3New England Revolution14 Oct · home
Pick: FC Cincinnati 54% · missed

Nashville SC

W
Nashville SC3–2New York Red Bulls1 Nov · home
Pick: Nashville SC 70% · hit
D
Nashville SC0–0Philadelphia Union29 Oct · home
Pick: Nashville SC 65% · missed
W
CF Montreal0–2Nashville SC24 Oct · away
Pick: Nashville SC 56% · hit
D
San Jose Earthquakes1–1Nashville SC18 Oct · away
Pick: Nashville SC 51% · missed
W
Nashville SC4–0Sporting Kansas City15 Oct · home
Pick: Nashville SC 81% · hit

About this match

FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC meet in Major League Soccer on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at TQL Stadium, Cincinnati. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Cincinnati win 31.4%, draw 24.2%, Nashville SC win 44.4%. The pick is Nashville SC win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.1%. Both teams to score: 62.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.