ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC

Philadelphia Union Home · Elo 1,503
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Toronto FC Away · Elo 1,494
Subaru Park, Philadelphia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Philadelphia Union win
Philadelphia Union winPick
45.3%
Draw
27.6%
Toronto FC win
27.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%

How much we know

Philadelphia Union history44 matches
Toronto FC history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Philadelphia Union are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,503 against 1,494. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Philadelphia Union score more

    1.61 goals a game over 44 matches for Philadelphia Union, against 1.30 over 43 for Toronto FC.

  • Defences are close

    Philadelphia Union concede 1.50 a game, Toronto FC 1.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Philadelphia Union matches, against 49% for Toronto FC. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1502.5
ELO
1494.1
44
ELO · Matches
43
1502.5
Current Team ELO
1494.1
1494.1
Current Opponent ELO
1502.5
8.42
Current ELO Difference
-8.42
0.51
Expected score
0.49
44
History Matches
43
0.00
Residual Mean
0.00
49.95
Overperformance
49.77
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
43
1.36
PPG
1.14
38.6%
Win rate
25.6%
20.5%
Draw rate
37.2%
40.9%
Loss rate
37.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
56.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.9%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
21
1.62
PPG
0.90
47.6%
Win rate
19.0%
19.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
47.6%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
21
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.61
Goals for per game
1.30
77.3%
Scoring rate
69.8%
56.8%
BTTS rate
60.5%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.10
76.2%
Scoring rate
61.9%
52.4%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.42
82.4%
Scoring rate
84.2%
76.5%
BTTS rate
84.2%
44
History Matches
43
1.61
Goals Mean
1.30
1.48
Goals Std
1.25
77.3%
Scored 1+ rate
69.8%
38.6%
Scored 2+ rate
39.5%
29.5%
Scored 3+ rate
11.6%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.42
75.0%
Conceding rate
79.1%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.48
71.4%
Conceding rate
76.2%
1.82
Goals against per game
1.79
88.2%
Conceding rate
89.5%
44
History Matches
43
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.47
Conceded Std
1.08
43.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.9%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.3%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
43
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
2.09
Goal Difference Std
1.45
3.73
Stability score
1.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
39
11
Lead Matches
8
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.75
16
Trailing Matches
15
37.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
14
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
19
1.12
PPG
1.05
29.4%
Win rate
21.1%
23.5%
Draw rate
42.1%
47.1%
Loss rate
36.8%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
17
Current Competition Matches
19
1.12
Current Competition PPG
1.05
-0.24
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.37
8
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.45
0.77
Portability PPG Range
0.95
65.56
Portability Score
52.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO8.42
PPG0.22
GF0.31
GA0.08
PPG0.07
PPG0.71
PPG0.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate7.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate17.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.39
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Conceded 2+ rate1.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.64
Stability score2.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.38
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate10.2%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate4.2%
Trailing Win Rate12.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.13
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score12.65
Rest days-0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.56
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO8.42
Current Opponent ELO-8.42
Current ELO Difference16.83
Expected score0.02
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Philadelphia Union

L
FC Cincinnati1–0Philadelphia Union31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Cincinnati 55% · hit
D
Nashville SC0–0Philadelphia Union29 Oct · away
Pick: Nashville SC 65% · missed
L
Philadelphia Union1–2New England Revolution24 Oct · home
Pick: Philadelphia Union 42% · missed
D
Philadelphia Union2–2Charlotte17 Oct · home
Pick: Philadelphia Union 40% · missed
W
Chicago Fire1–3Philadelphia Union15 Oct · away
Pick: Chicago Fire 62% · missed

Toronto FC

L
Atlanta United FC3–1Toronto FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Atlanta United FC 39% · hit
W
Toronto FC2–1DC United28 Oct · home
Pick: Toronto FC 44% · hit
L
Columbus Crew4–2Toronto FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Columbus Crew 40% · hit
W
New York Red Bulls0–2Toronto FC17 Oct · away
Pick: New York Red Bulls 42% · missed
D
Toronto FC3–3Orlando City SC14 Oct · home
Pick: Toronto FC 49% · missed

About this match

Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC meet in Major League Soccer on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Subaru Park, Philadelphia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Philadelphia Union win 45.3%, draw 27.6%, Toronto FC win 27.0%. The pick is Philadelphia Union win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.5%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.