ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

Inter Miami vs Charlotte

Inter Miami Home · Elo 1,604
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Charlotte Away · Elo 1,540
Nu Stadium, Fort Lauderdale Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Inter Miami win
Inter Miami winPick
52.8%
Draw
21.6%
Charlotte win
25.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.0%
No37.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.2%
Under 2.532.8%

How much we know

Inter Miami history54 matches
Charlotte history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Inter Miami are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Inter Miami are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,540. On rating alone Inter Miami would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Inter Miami score more

    2.02 goals a game over 54 matches for Inter Miami, against 1.55 over 38 for Charlotte.

  • Charlotte concede fewer

    Inter Miami concede 1.63 a game, Charlotte 1.32.

  • Inter Miami games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Inter Miami matches, against 58% for Charlotte. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Inter Miami
Charlotte
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1604.2
ELO
1539.7
54
ELO · Matches
38
1604.2
Current Team ELO
1539.7
1539.7
Current Opponent ELO
1604.2
64.52
Current ELO Difference
-64.52
0.59
Expected score
0.41
54
History Matches
38
0.08
Residual Mean
0.05
55.88
Overperformance
53.41
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.60
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.00
2.30
Goals for per game
2.00
2.30
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
38
1.81
PPG
1.61
53.7%
Win rate
47.4%
20.4%
Draw rate
18.4%
25.9%
Loss rate
34.2%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
74.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
19
2.00
PPG
0.89
60.9%
Win rate
21.1%
17.4%
Draw rate
26.3%
21.7%
Loss rate
52.6%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
87.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
69.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.23
23
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.02
Goals for per game
1.55
83.3%
Scoring rate
78.9%
64.8%
BTTS rate
55.3%
2.48
Goals for per game
1.11
100.0%
Scoring rate
68.4%
82.6%
BTTS rate
52.6%
2.56
Goals for per game
1.87
93.8%
Scoring rate
86.7%
75.0%
BTTS rate
73.3%
54
History Matches
38
2.02
Goals Mean
1.55
1.43
Goals Std
1.04
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
63.0%
Scored 2+ rate
55.3%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
2.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.63
Goals against per game
1.32
75.9%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.61
Goals against per game
1.63
82.6%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.94
Goals against per game
1.53
81.3%
Conceding rate
86.7%
54
History Matches
38
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.28
Conceded Std
1.05
51.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.1%
24.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
38
0.92
Result entropy
0.94
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.46
8.25
Stability score
6.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
38
23
Lead Matches
9
60.9%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.68
Lead Points Retention
0.74
11
Trailing Matches
10
45.5%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
36.4%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.63
28
Normal Rest History Matches
11
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
16
Matches
15
2.19
PPG
1.67
68.8%
Win rate
46.7%
12.5%
Draw rate
26.7%
18.8%
Loss rate
26.7%
93.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
81.3%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
62.5%
Over 3.5 rate
53.3%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
16
Current Competition Matches
15
2.19
Current Competition PPG
1.67
0.63
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
8
Competition Season Count
5
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.55
1.19
Portability PPG Range
1.68
57.98
Portability Score
47.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO64.52
PPG0.21
GF0.47
GA0.31
PPG0.52
PPG1.11
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate4.4%
Scored 2+ rate7.7%
Scored 3+ rate12.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches16
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate9.7%
Conceded 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches16
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score2.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate15.5%
Trailing Win Rate16.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.52
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.29
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score10.35
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.96
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.06
Current Team ELO64.52
Current Opponent ELO-64.52
Current ELO Difference129.0
Expected score0.18
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Inter Miami

W
New England Revolution1–2Inter Miami2 Nov · away
Pick: Inter Miami 46% · hit
D
Inter Miami2–2FC Cincinnati28 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Miami 57% · missed
L
New York Red Bulls2–0Inter Miami24 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Miami 49% · missed
W
Atlanta United FC1–3Inter Miami17 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Miami 54% · hit
W
Inter Miami2–0New York City FC14 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Miami 56% · hit

Charlotte

W
Charlotte4–0Orlando City SC31 Oct · home
Pick: Charlotte 59% · hit
W
Charlotte4–0CF Montreal28 Oct · home
Pick: Charlotte 59% · hit
L
Portland Timbers3–2Charlotte25 Oct · away
Pick: Portland Timbers 39% · hit
D
Philadelphia Union2–2Charlotte17 Oct · away
Pick: Philadelphia Union 40% · missed
L
Columbus Crew3–1Charlotte14 Oct · away
Pick: Charlotte 38% · missed

About this match

Inter Miami and Charlotte meet in Major League Soccer on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Nu Stadium, Fort Lauderdale. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Inter Miami win 52.8%, draw 21.6%, Charlotte win 25.7%. The pick is Inter Miami win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.2%. Both teams to score: 63.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.